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"Let there arise out of you a band of people inviting to all that is good enjoining what is right and forbidding what is wrong; they are the ones to attain felicity".
(surah Al-Imran,ayat-104)
 
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Options for Pakistan?

What's next?
The News, September 21, 2008
Dr Farrukh Saleem

These are the most dangerous of times. The trajectory of events on the Pakistan-Afghan border has a shocking parallel to the Vietnam War. The Vietnam War had begun in 1959 and by 1966 -- seventh year of the war -- the Viet Cong had established safe sanctuaries across the border in eastern Cambodia. The Viet Cong crossed the border through the Sihanouk Trail; crossed the border to rest and to rearm.

For the following three years, a unit of US Special Forces conducted covert intelligence operations across the border. The collected intelligence was repeatedly presented to Prince Sihanouk of Cambodia. Inaction on part of Sihanouk resulted in a regime change whereby Lon Nol was brought in as the new president (Sihanouk ran to China and Russia for help). Cambodia under a new president, and American operations turned from covert to overt.

Look at how history repeats itself: the Viet Cong turned against the Cambodian army. Nixon entered the White House on 20 January 1969 and within a year ordered General Abrams to "launch American forces into Cambodia with the special objective of capturing the headquarters of the entire communist military operation"¦."

America killed 1.5 million Vietnamese at the cost of 58,159 of its own soldiers. Remember, the only force that pulled the Americans out of Vietnam was the American public opinion (because too many Americans were getting killed). Over the following three decades -- and a dozen wars later -- the Pentagon has learned to keep American casualties low. In Iraq, over a million Iraqis have lost their lives while US casualties stand at 4,159.

Iraq has been destroyed; destroyed for no reason, destroyed for weapons of mass destruction that didn't even exist. Imagine; if there is another 9/11 and it's traced back to Pakistan. They'll have a reason -- a reason to vaporize Pakistan. If they can destroy countries for no reason just imagine what they'll do if we give them a reason.

The Shireen Mazari-Imran Khan-Qazi Hussain Ahmed trio defines 'pro-Pakistan' as 'anti-US'. The trio can make us lose everything we have built by eating grass for the past 61 years. The trio can make us lose everything that's dear to us and everything that's near to us. The Munir Akram-Zamir Akram duo defines 'pro-Pakistan' as 'anti-India'. That definition is no longer in Pakistan's national interest.

The 'Great Game' will encircle us and then crush us, choke us, squeeze us and squash us beyond recognition. There are no morals or ethics on either side. The game is about containing China, and America has already recruited India and Afghanistan. On September 8, Indian army's Corps of Engineers completed the construction of a road by virtue of which Afghanistan now stands connected to Iran's Free Port of Chahbahar. On September 13, India blockaded Chenab River just when our Kharif crops -- cotton and sugarcane -- need water the most. On September 17, Air Marshal P K Barbora redeployed six of his most advanced Sukhoi-30MKI, heavy-class, nuclear-capable, air superiority fighters from Pune to Awantipur Air Base (the airbase is next to Srinagar). Now we have Su-30MKIs in the east, Hellfire air-to-ground missiles in the west and USS Ronald Reagan in the Arabian Sea.

July, August and September are proving to be the deadliest months for American forces in Afghanistan. America's GDP stands at $14 trillion; next in line are Japan, Germany, China and the UK. Imagine; the collective GDP of Japan, Germany, China and the UK is less than America's. The whole wide world outside of the US spends $500 billion a year on killing machines and soldiers. Imagine; the US alone spends $500 billion (China $59 billion, Russia $50 billion, Japan $48 billion, India $27 billion and Pakistan $8 billion).

For the past two decades, Pakistan's ISI has outsmarted all Indian generals by pining down India's 15, 9, 16, 14, 10 and 11 Corps in the northeast in a low-intensity, low-cost confrontation -- and Indian generals have failed to find a way out. General Deepak Kapoor, India's 23rd chief of army staff, would now love a way-out.

America has her own interests and India has her own. We must determine a path that is best for Pakistan. Eventually, we would have to decide -- proxy wars or regional economic integration. Our decision must be knowledge based as oppose to being honour based.

Postscript: we have no intention of either returning their F-16s, stop applying for US visas or deny their wheat under PL-480.

The writer is an Islamabad-based freelance columnist. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com

 Reply:   Running Out of Time
Replied by(Noman) Replied on (23/Sep/2008)
Pakistan's military is threatening to shoot American troops if they launch another raid into Pakistan's territory. Whether the threat is real or meant solely for domestic consumption, there
http://www.sfgate.com/blogs/images/sfgate/techchron/2006/12/13/hourglass.gif'Running Out of Time'

Published: September 21, 2008

Pakistan's military is threatening to shoot American troops if they launch another raid into Pakistan's territory. Whether the threat is real or meant solely for domestic consumption, there is a real danger of miscalculation that would be catastrophic for both countries.

President Bush's decision to authorize Special Operations forces in Afghanistan to go after militants in Pakistan's lawless border region was a desperation move. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, admitted earlier this month that America and its allies were "running out of time" to save Afghanistan.

We certainly share his alarm and his clear frustration that the Pakistanis are doing too little to defeat the extremists or stop their attacks into Afghanistan. But Mr. Bush and his aides should be just as alarmed about Pakistan's unraveling "” Saturday's horrific bombing at Islamabad's Marriott Hotel is only the latest sign "” and working a lot harder to come up with a policy that bolsters Pakistan's fragile civilian government while enlisting its full support in the fight against extremists.

If an American raid captured or killed a top Qaeda or Taliban operative, the backlash might be worth it. But if there is any chance of permanently rooting out extremists from the tribal areas, that will have to be done by Pakistan's military, backed up with sustained programs for economic and political development.

For that, Washington must finally persuade Pakistan's leaders that this is not just America's fight but essential to their own security and survival as a democracy. And Pakistan's leaders must persuade their citizens.

We fear that a rising number of civilian casualties, on both sides of the border, is driving more people into the hands of the repressive Taliban and other extremist groups. These attacks are also making Pakistan's new president, Asif Ali Zardari, look weak and irrelevant.

He is an undeniably flawed leader, with little political experience and a history tainted by charges of corruption. But he deserves a chance, and American support, to fulfill his promises to bolster democracy, clean up Pakistan's intelligence services and work with the United States to defeat terrorism.

Mr. Zardari made a start, inviting President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan to his inauguration. In a speech to Parliament on Saturday "” hours before the bombing "” he said his government would not allow terrorists to launch attacks on any neighbor from Pakistani soil, nor would it tolerate further American military incursions. Admiral Mullen made a fence-mending trip to Pakistan last week and Pentagon officials say they are reviewing the overall strategy. Any revised plan must do a lot more to avoid civilian casualties and support, rather than undermine, Pakistan's civilian leaders. Congress can do its part by approving a $7.5 billion aid package, intended to strengthen Pakistan's democratic institutions and its counterinsurgency capabilities.

The Pentagon also needs to quickly come up with a better strategy in Afghanistan. Commanders warn that Mr. Bush's promise to send 4,500 additional troops falls far short. We fear that Admiral Mullen is right: there isn't much time left "” on either side of the border.


 
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