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"Let there arise out of you a band of people inviting to all that is good enjoining what is right and forbidding what is wrong; they are the ones to attain felicity".
(surah Al-Imran,ayat-104)
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User Name: Ghayyur_Ayub
Full Name: Ghayyur Ayub
User since: 26/Jul/2007
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The death of Osama

by

Dr Ghayur Ayub

 

The Abbotabad attack on May 2nd put many Pakistanis in shame. They felt like this back in 1971 when half of the country was lost and over 90 thousands Pak army surrendered. But there is a difference between the two feelings of shame. This time, without losing part of the country, the state sovereignty was blighted dropping the anvil on the government and army/ISI. In this article I will highlight on three points. First, was OBL a sectarian fanatic like his followers in the Taliban?; Second are there any discrepancies in the findings produced by the White House and our army team; Third what could be the possible fallout of this attack.

 

When Gen Kayani took over as Army Chief, the army image was at the lowest ebb because of Gen. Musharaf 's policies. Gen. Kayani cleansed this image in a short span of time. His success against the Taliban in the Swat operation, his role in helping the victims of the floods, and his stand on the Kerry Logar Bill or presentation on war on terror in Brussels proved that the Pak army can achieve its goals militarily, socially and politically. He also played the role of a wise man in the restoration of Ch Iftikhar as CJP. However, when the newly liberated judiciary started interfering in the malpractices of executive, some important political figures started feeling the pinch. According to news items Mr. Asif Ali Zardari had complained to the Americans about army interference in his work. The army which already had unhealthy relationship with a few opposition parties became soft target of the government.

 

The relationship between CIA and ISI was strained starting in December 2010 when a federal court in America made ISI a party in a case pertaining to the Bombay terrorist attack of November 2008. Obama's government did not help ISI in the case, infuriating the agency. A few weeks later, Karim Khan from North Waziristan filed a lawsuit in Peshawar High Court against the CIA station chief Jonathan Banks, on charges of providing operational guidance for the drone attacks which killed his son and brother. Americans saw ISI's hand in the case and hurriedly retreated Mr.Banks from Pakistan. As if that was not enough Raymond Davies arrest put Obama, his administration and CIA on the mat. The blame fell on ISI. The world saw ISI playing a superior spy game beating its American counterpart and for that matter the Obama administration. After a day long exclusive meeting between the army chiefs of the two countries in Oman, Raymond Davies was released. The army/ISI which always had cozy relationship with the Americans became the hard target and the Americans started waiting for an opportune time to hit back.

 

According to reports, the precursor to May 2nd episode started when ISI passed on information to CIA about infrequent suspicious messages on financial transactions through a SIM. One of the messages was sent from the house where OBL lived. It was then that CIA agents who were given visas by Hussain Haqqani without ISI clearance rented a nearby house and started collecting human intelligence about the occupants. Once they confirmed the high valued target could be OBL, they started waiting for the time to attack. May the 2nd turned out to be perfect for the following reasons;

 

  • It was this very day eight years ago when George Bush announced 'mission accomplished';
  • The deadline for the passage of American budget is on August the 2nd.. Because of strong Republican opposition its failing could adversely affect war on terror in Afghanistan.
  • The Al-Qaeda attacks in Afghanistan increase from this month onwards;
  • Obama's rating was falling rapidly;
  • The planned American reduction of forces in July was coming closer;
  • The performance record of ISI vis-a-vis CIA was spiralling up.

A well designed plan was executed excellently by Navy Seals achieving most of the targets throwing the image of Pak army and ISI in the gutter. The rest is history. According to news reports the CIA personnel who rented the nearby house have vacated the property leaving no evidence behind.

 

Irrespective of whether OBL was killed on May 2nd or died before, one thing is clear that he is officially dead confirmed by his own group, Al-Qaeda. After this background, let me take up the first point, whether OBL was a sectarian fanatic Muslim or not. A good number of Pakistanis believe he was not. According to those who met him say that he kept a delicate balance between his living in Afghanistan as guest of Taliban and their sectarian beliefs putting him in a precarious position. They say he tried to help Taliban government in business deals with foreign governments and large corporations. After interfering in a major oil deal between Taliban and a known US corporation his relation with the Americans deteriorated from bad to worse. He announced Jihad against America and promised to make Americans scared all over the world snatching away the feeling of freedom they like flaunting. In doing so he wanted to become a legend in Islamic history. Time will tell whether he succeeded in his aims.

 

On the second point; so far, we have seen many discrepancies in reports issued by the White House. Enough is written on that and the list keeps piling up everyday. As reported, the military investigative team is busy collecting its own findings. Let us wait for those findings and see if more discrepancies surface. Most probably the report will try to blacken the picture painted by the Americans. But one thing makes political sense that both CIA and ISI know that they need each other in the war on terror just like American political forces want Pakistan on their side in this war. At the same time the Americans would like to keep Pakistan and its army under pressure at a level that it does not go out of hand and erupt as street protests in the likes of the Middle East and North Africa. That would be a disaster for the American interests in the region.

 

The third point pertains to the possible fallout of May 2nd incident which could take the shape of;

 

  • The army clearing its image through its own investigation and recover from its fallen grace;
  • Resurfacing of workable relation between ISI and CIA.;
  • Heating up political tension between politicians;
  • The government nosediving in popularity especially after the budget;
  • Increase in the drone attacks;
  • Increase in the terrorist attacks;
  • The fear of a technocrat government recently expressed by Asif Ali Zardari becoming a reality. In other words, the Abbotabad hammer might fall on the political government. After all, in past the Ojhri camp disaster fell on Juneju's government and the Kargil episode fell on Nawaz Sharif's government. The Americans usually prefer army over the political set-ups in Pakistan. But keeping the present global environment in mind, they do not want to see army taking over the driving seat. So they wouldn't mind seeing the May 2nd attack on Osama becoming a prelude to a much talked about technocrat government provided the process is carried out without violating the Constitution of Pakistan.

The end

 

 Reply:   Re: Army face to face
Replied by(hiyours) Replied on (28/May/2011)

I am not hesitant to accept that I am unaware of any such testimony before the Supreme Court. I would be grateful if you cant quote the reference. What I know is that in 1994 Gen. Asad Durrani gave affidavit before Supreme Court that they supported, may be created also, IJI that won seats in the elections on 1990. IJI had nothing to do with Taliban. You say that America helps us so we should be thankful to it. Do you really think USA help us out of love and affection for humanity. Not at all. It is bilateral relationship where both the parties have interests. USA has never helped us like USSR did. USSR helped us in installing STeel mills which is a project of its own kind and the time of its installation developing countries were unaware of that. Did USA hlep us like that? No. It has never did anything beneficial for nation.It gave money. Yes our politicians appropriate part of the money for their own benefit. But does USA unaware of it. Not at all. Actually this is the purpose. Select the weak people. Support them. Let them corrupted. Jeopardize the national interests. Then at the proper time rais issue of corruption to blackmail us. Talibans are the successors of Mujahidin who raised war against Soviet Union b/w 1979 to 1989. These people had full support of USA. Below are some references from Wikipedia "The United States began training insurgents in, and directing propaganda broadcasts into Afghanistan from Pakistan in 1978.[78] Then, in early 1979, U.S. foreign service officers began meeting insurgent leaders to determine their needs.[79] According to Brzezinski, CIA financial aid to the insurgents within Afghanistan was approved in July 1979, six months before the Soviet invasion, though after the Soviets were already covertly engaged there. Arms were sent after the formal invasion.[81][82] US "Paramilitary Officers" from the CIA's Special Activities Division were instrumental in training, equipping and sometimes leadingMujihadeen forces against the Soviet Army." It is after 1995 when Taliban came into rule and they rejected the policies of USA then USA took U turn. You say we blackmail and we hit USA in back. Then USA should have sufferred. But here only we have sufferred. OUr poor people have been killed by USA. Our borders have been transgressed by USA. USA backed IMF asked us to increase utility bills but it never says to reduce imports. Because imports from west is in favour of USA. USA deceived us in 1971 war. USA killed innoncent people through randomn bombarment. How Pak Army is backstabbing, by getting itself killed and ridiculed by the nation. Pakistan Army has its own waknesses but USA is exploiting them it is a fact to the prejudice of Pakistan. How can I support USA, dear. I know this is possible for USA because of black sheep in our politicians and establishment. I say that if they get right USA cannot do any harm. But it does not mean that I should ignore USA's conspiracies and double standards. Our army has lost its dignity and our nation has lost its stability while fighting the war of USA and supporting the agenda of USA China is our friend it does not blame us but the attitude of USA is quite different. Last of all I would draw your attention towards, the use of word, "Namak Haram". I think this is quite indecent. You have different point of view, you have right to express it I may disagree but cannot insult you. I have read your many comments. They are backed by extensive reading and knowledge. However I will suggest that we should not let our intellectual discussions eroded by impolite language. Hope you would take car. MAY ALLAH Bless you
 
 Reply:   The death of Osama
Replied by(turkman) Replied on (15/May/2011)

Mr. Ayub is totally wrong that USA wants Zardari replaced by un-elected rule of Technocrats. This is why Gen. Keyani had proposed 2 years ago to Obama in Washington because he had hated Zardari telling him to stop killing of his Balochi Brothers and killings of PukhToons through Taliban.
* He had also wanted Pak Army to fight against Taliban also.
* Then the other problem was same that Nawaz Sharif had. He had also wanted good relations with India.
This is why he was declared a Puppet of USA by Pak Army. Army could not stop him from starting talks with India so, it had to send MojaahiDeen to attack Mumbai and stall Zardari's talks.
Army wants, Technocrats who shit in their Pants even if Gen. Keyani stares at them, not USA.
Mr. Ayub talks about US Interests but doesn't explain, what are they. How much has USA stolen Natural Resources or money of other countries of the world?
May I ask, if USA has become rich by doing that why is USA the biggest Debtor Country of the world?
Can we Hate Mongers, blaming all our faults on Satan, USA, the West, India etc ever talk some sense?
 
 Reply:   Nice and simple analysis by HiYours
Replied by(Noman) Replied on (14/May/2011)

I fully endorse his point of view.
 
 Reply:   Whether army is really face to face with America?
Replied by(hiyours) Replied on (14/May/2011)

Restoration of CJ was not the intelligent decision of army chief. Please don't undermine the sacrifice of the common people of this nation. It was the effort and protest of such a huge number of people that has left the establishment with no other choice. USA was against his restoration but in this circumstances Hailery Clinton herself asked the governmant for his restoration. If army chief was interested in CJ restoration then he could ask for it before. It was not his decision actually the establishment and USA had no other choice left. This is the power of nation , this is the power of people. USA could not do anything to Iran, USA could not do anything to India, USA culd not do anything to Singapore when Singapore turned down its request to forgive and not to punish its citizens. But our army and politicians always seek blessings of USA for remaining on seat. Taliban was the cration of USA, we have their fate in front of us . Let us see what would happen to us. Gen Kiyani and others took stand on Kerry Looger bill not in the interest of Pakistan rather for the benefit of army and ISI. They want unhindered funds for their residence, clubs, golf clubs, play Tambola (gambling is prohibited by law as well as by Islam)business run by Fauji Foundation, allotment of plots, DHA etc. Gen Kiyani & Shuja Pasha have been awarded extensions. There is nothing in news that may say that these extensions were opposed by USA. Just by naming two events , Raymond Davis and filing of case against an Amereican, you cannot say that ISI and army are giving tough times to Amereica. Situation of Raymond Davis was aggravated by killing of two person who according to some sources were officials of ISI. If such was the case, the act of becoming furious was justified. Later he was given safe passage. For holding and using arms ridiculous punishment was awarded, judge was detained in the court room, he flew away from Pakistan at once, families were not allowed to contact with media, lawyer was not allowed to meet his client... all are the blessings of ISI. Secondly, lodging case against American. With all optimist view it might be strategy against Drones attacks…….. however the failed one. Now ISI and army have shown a good play. Offering resign. how ridiculous. If ISI chief really wants to resign he should just tender his resignation why he is making drama, if Parliament aks so then I will do. He knows Parliament never unanimously ask for it. So good defence good play. Army chief is enjoying his extension. Army and ISI are conducting operations in Sawat,Waziristan. Is there any one who may ask them how the talibans in such a big number and high power managed to settle in their in the first place. What ISI was doing. How Osama managed to live adjacent to PMA. What ISI was doing? We expect the same performance from a non accountable organization Another drama that the helicopters were such as radars could not detect. We all were waiting that army and ISI are busy in fabricating some story and they have finally succeeded after ten days. OK admitted, we a poor nation with rich politicians and bureaucracy, could not have ample technology to detect helicopters But we have forgotten that they have not remained in the desert or over sea. They transgressed more than hundred kilometers. They landed on Kala Dhaka, they flew over Abbottabad. Helicopters remained there for 45 minutes conducted firing. One helicopter exploded. Then again flew back. All this was a game of hours. Our highly paid chowkidars could not notice that. The credit does not goes to latest technology that USA has, discredit goes to us. It is the awakening nation that army has been estopped from taking over. May ALLAH Bless us and make our army and ISI work in the interest of nation.
 
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