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Deal?
In Washington's journalistic circles, the buzz has been that the US has conceded to Pakistan on most of the points: India is out of Afghan affairs and drone attacks are being phased out. In return, Pakistan will deliver major Taliban groups led by Mullah Omar and Haqqani for definitive peace talks leading up to the election and a national government in Afghanistan. If this is true, then the US media will tone down its negative portrayal of Pakistan because when it comes to foreign policy, the US media generally follows the State Department and the Pentagon. However there is many a slip between lip and cup as the US will never leave Afghanistan unless the reasons for its invasion of Afghanistan are not eliminated. Furthermore, certain assumptions about the eagerness of the US to leave Afghanistan may not withstand.
Up until now the US media has been very critical of Pakistan. The country has been portrayed as a willing accomplice of terrorist organizations abetted by the army and its intelligence agency ISI. But proponents of reconciliatory theory point to the changing tone and signals of phasing-out drone attacks program. The significantly reduced frequency of drone attacks, targeting only Al Qaeda figures, is also quoted as a proof for newly-concluded Pak-American understanding about the future.
The real US goal in Afghanistan is to eliminate the possibility of terrorism that can reach American borders | Heavy cost and loss of American lives in the Afghan war theater are assumed to be forcing the US to withdraw its forces as soon as possible. However, when examined closely, the cost of war is not a major factor because it is small portion of the US GDP. Furthermore, the US military industrial complex is benefitting from the war that keeps many defense companies profitable and employment higher. The factor of loss of American lives is also exaggerated because most of the soldiers come from poor states, downtrodden ethnic groups and classes: the ruling elites are not bothered much about them, their lip service notwithstanding. This is one of the reasons that the American public is not outraged or protesting against the war and continuing Afghan war did not affect President Obama's reelection.
However, the US is increasingly being drawn into the Muslim countries of Middle East and Africa which are going through historical changes. Changes in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and ongoing civil war in Syria are forcing the US to concentrate more on the area and allocate more resources to the area. Besides the US desire to control the Arab-Israel conflict, free flow of oil from that area is also players an important role in formulating the international policies: The US economy is fragile at the moment and cannot bear another 70s like oil shock. Therefore, it is possible that the US is serious about withdrawing bulk of its forces from Afghanistan, paying more attention to the Middle East.
Reports released through media also indicate that the US believes Al Qaeda role in Afghanistan is diminishing. In a way the US can claim that it has achieved its goals in Afghanistan because Al Qaeda and other international jihadist have not been able to wage a 9/11 like attack. The US has never been known for establishing or forcing democratic dispensation in other countries. If this was the case, Saudis and other Gulf states would not be close to the US as they are. The real US goal in Afghanistan is to eliminate the possibility of the kind of terrorism that can reach American borders. Now, if Al Qaeda is diminished, the Taliban and Pakistan can assure that pre 9/11 set-up will not be allowed, the US will be willing to pull most of its army from Afghanistan leaving behind enough forces that can assure the new arrangements. In this backdrop, it is rumored that the US is willing to accept Taliban domination in South and along Pak-Afghan border. It may lead to another devastating civil war in Afghanistan but seems like the US is not giving much weight to this eventuality at the moment.
Probably, the US pulled back Indian card from Afghanistan because relations between two subcontinent rivals are warming up. With passage of time, India may be able to use Pakistani routes to trade with Afghanistan. Therefore, both India and the US may be willing to accept Pakistan's lead role in Afghanistan for the time. If sources claiming that Pak-US final 'muk muka' (win-win deal) is already in place, the US media posture will change in the next few weeks.
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