Why do more mantra applicable to Pakistan only Asif Haroon Raja
After making
Pakistan an ally and a frontline state in September 2001 to help the US in
occupying Afghanistan and in fighting global war on terrorism, it was first
asked to sever relations with Taliban regime in Kabul. Later on, it was coerced
to flush out Al-Qaeda elements and their supporters from South Waziristan (SW) in
2003. Pakistan sent regular troops in violation to the pledge Quaid-e-Azam had
given to the people of FATA that they will be allowed to retain their customs
and system of Jirga and that except for the Frontier Corps, no regular troops
will be deployed in the tribal belt. Backpedaling on the pledge proved fatal
since it provided an opportunity to the enemies of Pakistan to win over a
segment of resentful tribesmen bitter over Pakistan’s decision to ditch Taliban
whom they considered as their role models. They were tasked to carryout
guerrilla war against Pak security forces. In addition,CIA and FBI that had
established outposts in FATA to trace and kill Al-Qaeda operatives and their
supporterscreated a shady organization called ‘Spider Web’, in which retired
Pakistani and Afghan soldiers were inducted. Thehidden objective was to
assassinate tribal elders and clerics loyal to Pakistan. Over 400 loyalists
were murdered to create space for the militants.
Helped by foreign
agencies, the misled militantscalled Pakistani Taliban managed to establish Tehreek-Taliban-Pakistan
(TTP) in December 2007 under BaitullahMehsud. During this period, Pak agencies
netted over600 Al-Qaeda operatives including high profile leaders with head
money and handed them over to the US. The TTP in the meanwhile kept receiving
funds, weapons, explosives and equipment from their patrons based in
Afghanistan and extended their influence from the seven agencies of FATA to
several regions within the settled areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and made Swat
into a state-within-state by 2009.
On one hand
Pakistan was eulogized for fighting the war and making sacrifices, on the other
it was admonished for not doing enough and asked to do more. It was also
brought under a malicious propaganda campaign to discredit its premier
institutions. Maps and stories of Balkanized Pakistan showing Greater
Baluchistan and Greater Pashtunistan as separate states were circulated. Many
western and Indian writers predicted that Pakistan would crumble by 2015 if not
earlier. Besides fanning fears that Pakistan is a failing state and soon it
will become a failed state,it was propagated that Paknukes are unsafe and are
likely to fall in wrong hands. Pak security forces and ISI were accused of
being aligned with Al-Qaeda and Taliban. The US military and the US think tanks
kept making accusation that either Pakistan was complicit or incapable of
fighting and defeating the terrorists.
Large scale
operations were undertaken in end April 2009 and by November that year Swat,
Malakand, Shangla, Dir, Buner, Bajaur and SW (main operational base of TTP) were
cleared of the presence of militants and order restored. There on, smaller
operations were launched in 2010 and 17 out of total of 18 administrative units
under the influence of TTP were retaken and writ of the state re-established. No
sooner SW was recaptured, the US began to press Pakistan to start another major
offensive in North Waziristan (NW) and flush out Haqqani network (HN). Showing
utter insensitivity to Pakistan’s compulsions and its security concerns, the US
kept demonizing HN and repeating the demand of operation in NW. To intensify pressure,
it withheld counter terror equipmentas well as CSF. The reason was that the Afghan
Taliban from 2008 onwards had started gaining an edge in eastern and southern
Afghanistan and the US military gave an impression that HN was the major source
of terrorism in Afghanistan.
Failing to evoke
the desired response, the US launched a stealth helicopters attackin Abbottabad
under the plea of nabbing or killing most wanted Osama bin Laden (OBL) on May
2, 2011, who from all accounts had died in 2003 owing to kidneys failure. OBL’s
two wives and 11 children were residing in Abbottabad house which was attacked.
Cross border attacks by fugitive Fazlullah’s terrorists were intensified in
Mohmand Agency and Dir. When Pakistan still declined to launch an operation in
NW, the NATO Apache helicopters callouslyattacked military outposts at Salala
in Mohmand Agency on November 26 and killed many soldiers. Never before an ally
was stabbed in the back so coldheartedly. For next six months, Pak-US relations
hit rock bottom but even though the relations normalized in July 2012, the
element of distrust remained. The US and Afghan government held Pakistan and
the HN responsible for their failures in stemming the upsurge of Taliban in
Afghanistan.
Once the
decisive operation Zarb-e-Azbwas launched in NW in June 2014 and HN, Hafiz Gul
Bahadur Group,IMU, and other local and foreign terror groups were flushed out
and peace was restored, Washington and Kabul showeredrose petals on Pakistan
and urged it to help in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table. The Indo-US-Afghan nexus poured cold water
on Pakistan’s efforts twice, first time in July 2015 by mischievously
announcing death of Mulla Omar at a wrong time, and second time droning the new
Taliban Ameer Mulla Mansour in May 2016 in Baluchistan to sabotage peace
process. Once the US and the unity government in Kabul assumed that either
Pakistan cannot convince the Taliban, or else was playing a double game, and
that the security situation in Afghanistan rather than improving had gone
worse, the duo changed their stance and rose petals changed into stings and arrows.
Rather than
owning their mistake, Pakistan is being blamed for not doing enough to
convince/coerce the Taliban under the new leader HaibutullahAkhundzada to agree
to talk. The other crib is that Pakistan is not agreeing to the US-Afghan
proposal to fight the bad Taliban refusing to talk. The US want Pakistan to forget
about Indian threat, Indo-Afghan cross border terrorism from Afghanistan, and
rebellious BLA, BRA and BLF operating in Baluchistan, and instead concentrate
fully on Afghan Taliban and make them agree to the US tailored peace formula. The
US is resorting to its old coercive tactics and has stopped payment of $ 300
million CSF as well as delivery of eight F-16s and has also adopted
abelligerent posture.
The US has all along been playing a double game with
Pakistan. Under the garb of friendship and making Pakistan a non-NATO ally, it
has been striving to rob Pakistan of its nukes and making it a client state of
India.
The US gets upset whenever Pakistan fails its evil
plans. Swat, Bajaur and SW had been converted into extraordinary strong
fortresses and strategic ambush sites, where the partners in crime had hoped
that Pak Army would get sunk into one of the quagmires.
When Pak Army
emerged victorious by November 2009, the US soon after started pressing it to
jump into the inferno of NW straightaway without taking a breather and consolidating
its gains. It didn’t care that the Army had suffered 3000 casualties to achieve
those brilliant triumphs. And now when their last wish has been fulfilled, it
is still dissatisfied and wants Pakistan to do more by hunting leaders of HNand
Quetta Shura and at the same time convince them to talk.
The US and its
strategic allies had hoped that a military venture into the last bastion of NW would
bring all the terror groups as well as Afghan Taliban on one page and their
collective effort would pin down bulk of Pak Army in the northwest and create
conducive conditions for Indian military to launch its Cold Start doctrine
against the weakened eastern front.It was with this end in view that
Baluchistan and Karachi were destabilized to fix the Army in the three conflict
zones. The MQM had also kept requesting the Army to takeover Karachi operation
from the Rangers. Another reason of
destabilizing Baluchistan was to equate it with Kashmir and use it as a card to
make Pakistan forget Kashmir.
Brilliant success in NW has decisively broken the back
of foreign supported TTP and its affiliates.It has turned the tables on the
conspirators who were very optimistic that the TTP in concert with BLA-BRA-BLF
would help in weakening the Army and in slowing down the work on CPEC and in
scuttling it.Ongoing
combing operation all over Pakistan to search facilitators and collaborators is
giving sleepless nights to the masterminds.The Army has become more robust and
battle worthy and is today rated as second to none.
Substantial
progress has been made in improving the law and order and security situation in
the other two conflict zones of Baluchistan and Karachi that had been made
restive through proxies. Not only that, freedom movement in occupied Kashmir
which apparently had been curbed by 700,000 Indian forces operating under
draconian law of AFSPA, has once again erupted like a volcano. Pakistan’s
proactive moral, political and diplomatic support to the Kashmiris in distress
has added to India’s woesand flabbergasted it.
Latest terror attack in Quetta in which about 60
lawyers lost their lives was in all probability aimed at giving vent to their
pent up anger, ego and frustrationby giving pain to Pakistan. It also indicates
that from now on, main effort of proxy war will be concentrated in Baluchistan.
Let us now
recapitulate the performance of ISAF which fought the longest war in the
contemporary historyin Afghanistan. The US-NATO forces removed the Taliban from
power and occupied Afghanistan in November 2001 on the plea that the Taliban
were linked with Al-Qaeda and had refused to hand over wanted OBL. The Taliban
had been projected as fanatics who had made the lives of Afghans miserable
because of their extremist ideology. Singing the songs of ‘Enduring Freedom’,
democracy, women rights and prosperity, the 150,000 strong ISAF consisting of
military contingents from 48 countries sounded bugles of victory all too soon
and declared the Taliban and Al-Qaeda down and out. They didn’t take into
consideration the possibility of tactical withdrawal by the two for regrouping
purposes and then striking back within a year time. They could never
contemplate in their wildest stretch of imagination that the Taliban would
regain the initiative and force them to withdraw bulk of their forces from
Afghanistan despite their overwhelming superiority in men and material and use
of excessive force and torture for 14 years at a stretch.
1, 40, 000
soldiers of the ISAF exitedwithout accomplishing any of the stated objectives.
The US has also failed to convince the Taliban to agree to sit and talk and
work out a political settlement. A token force called ‘Resolute Support Mission’(RSM)
comprising 12000 soldiersis stationed in Afghanistan. This force is meant to
continue imparting training and technical assistance to the Afghan National
Security Forces (ANSF) and also undertake limited counter terror and combat
operations. The RSM is likely to be halved by the end of this year and probably
exit by December next year.
Reasons why Obama administration decided to pullout
was increasing rate of casualties, in-house killings, suicide cases, post
stress disorders, fatigue, demoralization and home sickness.
The ANSF have 3,
60,000 soldiers and policemen fully trained and equipped by the US and UK,and have
12 years of combat experience to their credit which they have gained by
fighting war against resistance forces on their home ground. They have the
numerical as well as strategic, tactical, administrative, technical,
technological and intelligence advantages over their opponents who are very
less in numbers and devoid of air power, drones, gunship helicopters, tanks,
artillery, multi-barrel rockets. The Taliban do not have a safe and secure base
of operation, or a logistic base or a caliphate like the IS in Syria-Iraq.
Their leadership remain in hiding and cut off from the fighters and keep
shifting from one place to the other to avoid detection.
Despite multiple
advantages, the ANSF have been unable to cope with the Taliban threat which is
becoming menacing with every passing day, given the number of deadly attacks
all over Afghanistan. They have suffered maximum casualties in 2015-16 and are
demoralized and involved in all sorts of indiscipline cases like corruption, private
business, drugs, arms stealing, green-over-blue attacks, desertions, infighting
and insubordination.The writ of unity government doesn’t extend beyond Kabul
which also has been repeatedly attacked by the Taliban.
The Taliban Shura
has now decided to capture whole of strategically important Helmand province which
is contiguous to Baluchistan and flanked by Nimroz province (sharing border
with Baluchistan and Iran) and Kandahar from where the Taliban movement under
late Mulla Omar had started in 1994. They feel the time has come for the
Taliban senior leadership, which is spread all over the country, tobase itself
at a permanent and safe place in Afghanistan with escape routes and tactical
positions to fight positional battle whenever required.This need was felt in
the wake of increased vulnerability of Taliban leaders belonging to Quetta
Shuraoutside the borders of Afghanistan after the droning of Mulla Mansour in
Baluchistan. Earlier on, the Shura under Mulla Mansour had selected populous
Kunduz in northern Afghanistan for this purpose and the Taliban had captured
the province more than once, but taking into consideration the difficulties
faced by the locals due to excessive aerial bombardment, had vacated it.
Helmand, besides
being hilly and having lesspopulation which is scattered, has several tactical
advantages. It dominates strategic Kandahar-Kabul highway and facilitates its blockage.
Being a Pashtun region and the people being 100% pro-Taliban, they are
confident that unlike in Kunduz the CIA and NDS will find it difficult to gather
information. Both Nimroz and Kandahar being strongholds of Taliban will make it
difficult for the attackers to launch direct assault on Helmand. The Taliban have
already taken over most of its districts including Sangin district and the
military camp and police centre inGaramSerdistrict and are now knocking at the
gates of capital city Lashkargah and are trying to penetrate it from all sides.Capture
of Helmand will convert guerrilla war into semi-guerrilla war cum positional
war, and will encourage the Taliban to change their strategy and start besieging
cities to cause bigger casualties on their foes. The Afghan forces have assembled a force of 40,000,
2 km away from Lashkargah and the RSM jets are pounding Taliban positions
intensely. But for air attacks the
Taliban by now would have overpowered the province.
Fall of Helmand
which had remained in the control of British troops from 2004 to 2014 will be
the biggest setback for the unity govtand it will pave the way for fall of
Zabil, Qandahar and Urzgon provinces. Kabul govt is already rived in serious
crisis owing to increased rift between Ashraf Ghani and Dr. Abdullah. The
latter whose two-year term as CEO expires in September this year is miffed with
the former and has stated that he is unfit for the presidency. Neither the
constitution has been amended nor has Loya Jirga been called to authorize the
post of PM. If Abdullah is edged out of his office, it may create political
crisis which the country cannot afford at this critical stage. Both are string puppets
of USA and India and that is why the Taliban are not agreeing to talk to them.
Having narrated
the above facts, what is ironic is that the ones who have performed poorly and
committed big blunders repeatedly owing to which it has suffered successive
reverses and for all practical purposes lost the war in Afghanistan, have the audacity
to censure Pakistan and ask it to it to do more. The age old saying “bad
workman quarrels with his tools” fits well for the US. Rather than admitting
its faults,exiting gracefully and carrying out in-house postmortem to determine
where and why it went wrong, the US is behaving like a bad loser and shifting
the blame of its failures on Pakistan which has performed outstandingly.
Shouldn’t George
Bush and his team of neocons who planned the war on terror with selfish motives
be held accountable and punished for war crimes? After all, millions have died
in this senseless war and millions displaced. Spillover effects have penetrated
Europe and the heat is being felt in USA. And what has the US achieved in this
dirty war except for earning a bad name and making USA a descending power and
facilitating China and Russia to surge forward as ascending powers?Shouldn’t
Bush and Tony Blair in particular be punished for faking WMDs and invading
Iraq? Who will answer for the mess created in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen and
pushing the whole of Middle East in the vortex of chaos? What about the
innocent victims of drones? Who will account for the sufferings of the innocent
suspects that were locked up in prisons of Bagram, Guantanamo Bay and Abu
Gharaib without trials for years and subjected to water boarding and soul
searing torture?Should Pentagon not be asking the military commanders of ISAF equipped
with world resources for their abject failures against a small rag tag enemy?
The US need to
do a lot more to clear up the messes it has created rather than blaming others.The US is digging its own grave by
prolonging its stay in the graveyard of super powers and is reinforcing failure
by supporting the effete horses. Earlier it quits better it will it be since
time is running out and time is not in favor of USA.
Let us see where the US went wrong. Although the list is long, in my view following were some of the
major reasons for its failure in Afghanistan:
1. 9/11 was a
false flag operation engineered by the neocons and Jews to steal the resources
of Muslim world and to discredit Islam.
2. The war was
launched with insincere intentions and without a plausible cause.
3. Relying on
minority non-Pasthuns (Northern Alliance) and sidelining majority Pashtuns was
a blunder. 4. No narrative was constructed to counter Taliban narrative who had
a just cause to liberate their homeland.
5. Opening
second front in Iraq without consolidating in Afghanistan and that too on
concocted charges put strains on military and economic resources.
6. Total
dependence upon perfidious India and Israel and distrusting time-tested
Pakistan that had played a key role in pushing out Soviet forces from
Afghanistan in 1989, which fragmented USSR and brought down Berlin wall, and
made USA the sole super power.
7. The US has
become most hated country because of its all-out support to barbaric Israel and
India. Ruling elites of the trio are birds of same feather and are therefore
flocking together.
8. Wasting time
and resources in covert operations, indulging in drug business and making
little effort to win hearts and minds of the Afghans and economically
developing the country.
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