Afghanistan is connected with South Asia,
Middle East and Central Asia. It shares 1400 km border with Pakistan and its
42% of Afghan Pashtuns share religious, ethnic, linguistic and cultural ties
with 15.2 million Pakistani Pashtuns. Pashtuns living in close vicinity of
Durand Line have blood relations and the border has never acted as a barrier in
their cross border movement. Pashtuns from both sides have been jointly
fighting all foreign invaders and are doing so even now.
Afghanistan has traditionally remained
friendly to distant neighbor India and unsympathetic to next door Pakistan
since 1947. It opposed Pakistan’s membership in the UN, laid claim on Pakhtun
populated areas of Pakistan and raised the stunt of Pakhtunistan, and also
questioned the validity of Durand Line. It has been off and on carrying out
border violations and has been giving shelter to Baloch rebels. The only time
it was friendly with Pakistan and unfriendly with India was during the
five-year rule of Taliban from 1996 till 2001, but the Taliban also refused to
recognize Durand Line and laid claims on Mohmand agency.
Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship has been a
prey to differing interests. The two have never been at ease with each other
and deep doubts have persisted in bilateral ties. Pakistan has never exploited
its vulnerability of being land-locked and has considered it as its natural
ally. It played a key role in pushing out Soviet forces from Afghanistan and
has been hosting over 3 million Afghan refugees since 1979. But its wish for a
friendly government in Kabul has never materialized. Pakistan has behaved
maturely despite Afghanistan’s provocations and extended all kinds of support.
Incident of 9/11Blown up. 9/11 was projected
as the biggest catastrophe ever happened and Al-Qaeda blamed for the vile act.
Whole world shed tears of sympathy and condemned the perpetrators against whom
no proofs had been gathered. Force mobilized to invade the most impoverished,
war torn and sanctioned country far exceeded the threat. Afghanistan was
encircled by establishing military bases in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and
Tajikistan in the north, making Pakistan a coalition partner and frontline
state, taking China, Russia, Iran and Arab world on board and obtaining UN
approval. India offered all out support. War was justified to fight terrorism
but terrorism was never defined.
US Stated Objectives.
The US stated objectives of invasion of Afghanistan included: Rooting out
terrorism by killing/capturing Osama bin Laden, disrupting, defeating and
eliminating Al-Qaeda network; destroying Taliban or making them ineffective;
democratization of Afghanistan; empowerment of women.
US Hidden Objectives.
The hidden objectives were to assert American dominance in the regions
surrounded by energy-rich Eurasian region, consolidate Afghanistan as a
neo-colonial US protectorate and a staging post for further intrigues in
Central/South Asia, Middle East, contain China, make India bulwark against
China, a key player in Afghanistan, and stem resurgence of Russia.
Pakistan Specific
Objectives. Initially befriend
Pakistan to occupy Afghanistan. Later, work towards destabilization,
de-Islamisation, de-nuclearisation, and balkanization of Pakistan and making it
a vassal state of India.
Installation of Puppet
Regime. Drums of victory
were beaten in November 2001 and a puppet regime of Northern Alliance under
Hamid Karzai installed in Kabul. During his over 13 years rule, Karzai allowed the
occupiers to ruthlessly persecute the Afghan Pashtuns. He adopted pro-India and
anti-Pakistan stance and permitted Afghan intelligence agency (NDS) grouped
with five foreign agencies to use Afghan soil for undertaking massive covert
war against Pakistan in FATA and Baluchistan.
Resistance War by Taliban.
Taliban regime under Mulla Omer was wrongly removed from power and then
consistently hounded and oppressed. The Taliban after carrying out a tactical
withdrawal to regroup, started guerrilla war to free their homeland from
foreign occupation. No amount of force could break the indomitable will of
Afghan Taliban or divide them. By 2008, resistance forces were running shadow
governments in 33 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces with core fighters of about
30,000 and potential fighters 500,000. ISAF suffered heaviest casualties in
2009 and there on, number kept increasing. 2015 was the most costly year for
Afghan forces and the people.
Stalemate - Victory of
Taliban
Failing to defeat the Taliban in the longest
war after spending billions of dollars and using excessive force/torture as
well as underhand tricks to divide the Taliban, the US was left with no other
option but to call it a day. Operation Enduring Freedom which commenced on 07
October 2001, ended on December 28, 2014 and Armies of 35 countries exited
without achieving any of the stated and hidden objectives. Learning a lesson
from its unwise decision of abandoning Afghanistan in 1989, the US has left
behind a Resolute Force Group of 12000 under Bilateral Security Agreement till
end 2016 to give heart to Afghan forces.
Stalemate was victory for Taliban since
Taliban could continue fighting and occupiers could not. Unlike in 1980s when
the Afghan Mujahedeen fought and defeated the Soviet occupying forces duly
helped by Pakistan and the free world, this time the Taliban under Mulla Omar
performed the miracle single-handedly and under much adverse conditions.
Mistakes made by USA. Major mistakes made were insincere designs, distrusting
Pakistan, relying on India, weak military leadership, drug trafficking,
marginalization of Pashtuns, opening of torture chambers, dependence upon
corrupt/inept Karazi regimeand non-Pashtun heavy security forces, hiring of
greedy NGOs/security contractors in thousands; bending situation according to
its own whims, farcical political prong aimed at dividing Taliban, keeping
Taliban out of peace talks till 2013. Last but not least opening 2ndfront
in Iraq.
Afghan Unity Government.
The incumbent unity government was formedin October 2014 after controversial
elections, which is more inefficient and corrupt than warlord heavy Karzai
regime. The flaw in this setup is the forcible marriage of convenience mid-wifed
by John Kerry between President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr. Abdullah
after their prolonged estrangement. Abdullah heading Northern Alliance is
heavily tilted towards India and he controls 50% of cabinet ministries
including NDS. As a result, influence of India’s RAW in Afghanistan has not
diminished. RAW and NDS patroniseTehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP) runawaysFazlullah
and Omer Khalid Khurasani based in Kunar and Nangarhar respectively.
Ghani’s Pro-Pakistan
Stance. To start with, Ashraf Ghani tilted towards
Pakistan as a result of outstanding success achieved by Operation Zarb-e-Azb in
North Waziristan (NW) which not only pushed out anti-Pakistan militants, but
also Haqqani network (HN) and Hafiz Gul Bahadur militant group. The other thing
was Pakistan going an extra mile in removing Kabul’s security concerns. Ghani
was also mindful of his weaknesses because of lack of political roots. Understanding
with resurging Taliban was the only way for him to survive.
Reasons behind Patch up
with Taliban. One reason behind frantic efforts to negotiate with the Taliban
is not-so-happy operational preparedness of the US-UK trained and equipped Afghan
National Army(ANA) to confront the Taliban challenge. It may not be possible
for the US to continue dishing out $4.1 billion per year for the upkeep of
Afghan security forces for long, particularly if they fail to deliver. Other
reason is inherent weakness of unnatural unity government engaged in power
tussle. Most of cabinet ministers including four women are pro-west and have
little experience of governance. Ghani leaned on Pakistan hoping it will persuade
Afghan Taliban to talk and reach a political settlement.
Ghani’s Changed Foreign
Policy. With these considerations, Ghani while enumerating his foreign
policy priorities, placed Pakistan, Iran and China well above India. He
undertook his maiden visits to China and Pakistan. He also cancelled arms deal
and military training agreements with India and instead sent cadets to PMA
Kakul for training for the first time. ISI-NDS intelligence cooperation deal
was inked. Both sides took practical measures to improve defence cooperation
and intelligence sharing to tackle common threat of terrorism. Pakistan
arranged meetings of Taliban and representatives of Ghani regime in Beijing and
other countries.
Indian Anxieties. Fast improving
Pak-Afghan relations, China’s decision to invest $46 billion in Pakistan for
the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and energy projects and
Pakistan sailing past the turbulent patch worried India immensely. India is
getting highly vexed since her sinister plans set against Pakistan are falling
apart like nine-pins. Her plan to fill up the security vacuum left behind by
the withdrawing US-NATO troops and to complete encirclement of Pakistan is in
jeopardy. Her strategic alliances with Afghanistan and USA are becoming
inconsequential. All the three conniving partners in crime today find
themselves in hot waters. Kautilya’s book offers no remedy to the prevailing
situation since all games of intrigues, coercion and bloodshed have failed to
cow down resilient Pakistan.
RAW Activated. In desperation, India allocated $300 million to its notorious
intelligence agency RAW and mandated it to further destabilize the troubled
regions of Pakistan and to scuttle CPEC at all costs. Hamid Karzai was given
$50 million to rejuvenate cross border terrorism from Afghan soil and to keep
weak-willed Ghani under pressure and force him to shift his tilt from Pakistan
to India. Karzai has teamed up with RAW influenced NDS, Abdullah and Northern
Alliance heavy Afghan Parliament as well as ANSF to spoil Afghan-Pakistan
relations. Indian National Security Adviser AjitDoval is personally pursuing
anti-Pakistan agenda.
Ghani’s Dilemma. Ghani is caught between the rock and a hard place. On one hand,
he has to bear the pressure from segment of his government led by Abdullah and
backed by Karzai led faction of Pashtuns, and on the other is the surging
Taliban who enjoy influence over 80% of Afghan territory. After their ouster
from NW, HN has intensified activities in northern Afghanistan where eight
provinces are under its control. Most of Helmand province is also in control of
Taliban. Taliban’s 2015 spring offensive has rapidly changed the situation in
their favor. 2016 Spring Offensive in April may decisively turn the tide.Under
pressure from the US, unity government is trying to patch up with Pakistan. It has
taken resignation from the NDS head Nabeel and sacked 8 officials in NDS. Some improvement in Pak-Afghan
military relations is discernible.
Obama’s Second Thoughts. The US military felt
that with the dismantlement of safe haven in NW, it had become easier for the
Afghan National Army backed by US airpower/intelligence support to deal with
the militants in eastern Afghanistan and thus defeat them. However, when no success
could be achieved at their end and the Taliban continued to strike targets at
will in all parts of the country, the option of dialogue was renewed. To
appease Taliban, Obama struck off Afghan Taliban from the category of
terrorists and termed them as insurgents fighting for their rights. He also
declared that US troops would not fire at Taliban unless provoked by them.
These reconciliatory moves were aimed to induce the Taliban to negotiate and
arrive at a political settlement. Obama had announced that by mid-2015 he would
withdraw 50% of residual force, but now the US seems to be having second
thoughts on gradual reduction of troops on account of Pentagon’s pressure and
Da’esh(ISIS) threat.
Two Pronged Negotiations. The US was forced to
patch up with the Taliban whom it had all these years been projecting as
uncivilized, crude terrorists deserving no mercy.Initial effort to induce
Taliban for talks was based on two prongs, one prong led by Ghani and the other
by the US and in both cases, Pakistan was asked to assist. China was also given
a green signal to play its role in restoring peace in Afghanistan. Ghani kept
urging the Taliban to join the unity government, and this was one reason of 106
days delay in forming the 16-member cabinet duly approved by Afghan parliament,
but the Taliban didn’t agree.
Presumed Pakistan’s Influence
over Taliban.
Both the US and Afghan regime carry the impression that Pakistan is in a
position to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. While it is true that
Pakistan does have some influence over Taliban leaders since quite many were in
its custody all these years, it doesn’t control them and is not in a position
to make them agree to the terms sought by the US. It can also not give any
guarantee to the Taliban that Afghan regime will abide by the terms of
agreement arrived at. Pakistan and China are however trying hard to create
conducive conditions for talks. Pakistan is playing a key role in creating
goodwill space for China in Afghanistan and in mending its relations with
Taliban.
Peace Talks. As a consequence to
these silent efforts, the wheels of talks started to churn slowly in Doha and
the Taliban in principle agreed to open their political office there for the
initiation of formal political dialogue. Murree talks held on July 7, 2015 between
representatives of Taliban and unity government, and US and China’s representatives
sitting as observers raised hopes of a settlementfor the first time. On July
29, eight members of Taliban Shura had reached Islamabad to participate in
second round of talks on July 31 to further speed up the reconciliation
process.
Death of Mulla Omar Exploited
Ill-motivated and ill-timed announcement of
death of Mulla Omar by the National Directorate of Security (NDS) on July 29
was aimed at derailing peace talks, straining Pak-Afghan relations and dividing
Taliban. The news was later confirmed by Taliban Shura. Election of Mulla
Akhtar Muhammad Mansour as next Ameer was announced by Afghan RahbariShura on
July 30. SirajuddinHaqqani and HaibatullahKhanzada were appointed deputies.
Mullah Omar’s departure from the scene has
altered the whole dynamics of nascent peace negotiations with the Taliban. His
deputy Mulla Mansour was part of the Taliban movement from the start and has
effectively been in charge as de facto commander since 2013. He faces a huge
challenge in trying to unite a movement that is already showing signs of
fragmenting and questions about his legitimacy at the highest echelon of the
Taliban has made his position awkward.
Rifts in Taliban Two rival camps got engulfed in war of
succession; one led by Mansour and the other by Omar’s brother Mulla Abdul
Manan and Omar’s 26 years old son Mulla M. Yaqub backed by Mullas Mansur
Dadullah, Hasan Rahmani, Abdul Razaq, RasoolAkhund and QayumZakir. FadayeeMahaz
headed by HajiNajibullah is another opponent of Mansour who accused him of poisoning
Omar to death. Head of Taliban political office in Doha Tayyab Agha resigned,
but has so far remained neutral. Taliban are also divided on the issue of
talks, one faction favoring and the other opposing it.
Sinister Objectives of
Detractors Accomplished. Spoilers sprang into action to accentuate the rift and succeeded
in achieving their sinister objectives by disrupting peace talks.Several woven stories
about circumstances, place and date of Omar’s death created tension among rank
and file of Taliban and impacted their unity.This internal rift is to the liking
of India and other spoilerswho are busy widening the rift by supporting the
opponents of Mansour. The US is also a spoiler. It is not in favor of Pakistan
mediatedagreement since it will benefit Taliban and Pakistan. It has made
the position of Pakistan and Mansour favoring talks difficult. Pak-Afghan
relations that had begun to improve have again become frosty.However, the
biggest loser is Kabul itself.
Efforts to Heal the Rift
Five members of Council of senior Taliban
Ulema tried to bridge the rift. They met on August 21, 2015 to resolve the
differences, but MullaYaquband Manan refused to contest the post of Ameer since
they knew they didn’t enjoy popular support among the Taliban. Had Mansour not
met them, the Council would have appointed Maulvi Muhammad Ahmad from Kandahar
belonging to Kakar tribe as next Ameer. Currently MullaRasool is the main
opponent of Mansour and is anti-peace talks.
Mullah Mansour’s Assertiveness
In order to consolidate his
position and to win over support of opponent camp, Mansour stiffened his stance
by asserting that there will be no talks without meeting their basic demands of
complete withdrawal of foreign troops and replacement of US tailored
constitution with Islamic constitution. He alsostepped up attacks in all parts of Afghanistan
and raised his stature after capturing Kunduz. He did this to dispel the over
optimistic impression that after the death of Mulla Omar, Taliban are in
disarray and resistance has weakened, and that Taliban will be negotiating from
position of weakness. Taliban hold sway over 127 districts of the country. Latest
news is that on February 12, the opponents of Mulla Mansour have decided to
forge unity and reunify the Taliban movement.
Negotiated Political Settlement
Negotiated political settlement leading to
broad based government with Taliban, given representation as per their
demographic strength will be an ideal arrangement since it will prevent civil
war and benefit Afghan Pashtuns, Pakistan and China but may not be that
beneficial for non-Pashtun Northern Alliance since its power base will shrink.
It will also not suit India since balance of power will shift towards Pakistan
friendly Afghan Pashtun. Iran and USA will also not be happy.
While Pakistan and China are playing an active
role in making Afghanistan peaceful, both are clear that arm twisting of
Taliban will prove counterproductive. In case a settlement is reached without giving
a bigger share in power to the Taliban, the implication is that there will be
strong resentment among the rank and file of the Taliban and other resistance
forces. It will become very difficult for Mullah Mansour who has become
controversial to control the dissenters.
Threat of Da’esh.Da’esh(ISIS)
has gained toeholds in Nangarhar and Farah provinces and has also colludedwith Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in Northern Afghanistan. India and probably USA
are discreetly facilitating their entry. Weakening of Taliban will create more
space for Da’esh in Afghanistan, which will be more hazardous for the whole
region, since Da’esh is vying to re-establish ancient Khurasan State comprised
of parts of Central Asia, Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan. Collusion ofDa’esh
with TTP leaders based in Afghanistan assisted by RAW and making Nangarhar as
main base of operation is a dangerous development. Extension of hand of
friendship by Al-Qaeda chief Zawahiri to Mulla Mansour if reciprocated will add
to the complications of regional security. It will result in prolonged bloodshed
and destruction spread over decades, as predicted by Obama.
Iran-Saudi Tiff. Growing tiff between
the two ideological rivals is casting its shadow on Syria and Afghanistan and if
not defused in time will have bearing on Pakistan as well.
Indian Military Involvement
in Afghanistan.
Indian military which had refused to join the
US led coalition in Afghanistan to fight terrorism in 2001 has now decided to
barge into Afghanistan. India has renewed its defence deal with Afghanistan and
is now supplying arms and ammunition to ANA since last January. Indian Military
Attache in Kabul SojeetNarainstated that India has started assisting the Afghan
military in their fight against militants and this support will continue till
victory. 400 trucks carrying arms have been transported to Kabul for ANA via
Chahbahar. It includes MGs, LMGs, rocket launchers, grenades and ammunition.
India’s Russian built MI-35 attack helicopters flew from Bagram air base to
support ANA’s ground operation in Helmand on January 20. Gen John Campbell
appreciated Indian effort. On February 1, Indian military cargo planes unloaded
weapons and equipment at Kabul airport. India is already imparting training to
Afghan police and is now likely to train ANA.
During Modi’s last visit to Kabul, an
agreement was signed allowing Indian citizens to travel to Afghanistan and back
without visa. Taking advantage of this facility, India has inducted large
numbers of retired armed forces officers and undercover officers in Afghanistan
in order to consolidate Indian military’s presence and to keep western border
hot and to gain control over Wakhan corridor. This ingress will help India in
interfering with CPEC.
Fallout of Turmoil in Afghanistan
Negative fallout of the disarray in the
Taliban ranks is not good news for the peaceniks including President Ashraf
Ghani, Washington and Islamabad. Another obvious corollary of the disharmony in
Taliban ranks is that erstwhile Taliban factions will join Da’eshin bigger
numbers and pave the way for Da’esh to emerge as the most powerful entity.
Turmoil in Afghanistan will be to the big disadvantage of Pakistan, since there
will be spillover effect. Pak Army is already tired fighting the war for 13
years and cannot afford to further prolong it. It will also adversely impact
China’s economic aggression in the region and its plan to connect Gwadar with
Afghanistan.
Preventive Act.
In order to prevent the chaos, US, China, Pakistan and Iran should collectively
help the intra-Afghan dialogue to proceed smoothly till comprehensive political
settlement benefiting all factions of Afghans irrespective of ethnic divisions.
Role of unity government is however critical since Taliban offensive has
rattled Ghani, and he has begun to speak Karzai and Abdullah’s language. War
lords are once again getting stronger and cases of desertions from ANSF to
private militias are increasing as had happened in 1990/91.
Quadrilateral Talks
Three sessions of quadrilateral talks have
been held in Islamabad and Kabul in which representatives of Pakistan,
Afghanistan, China and the US took part to evolve a roadmap for peace talks. Afghan
unity government has prepared a draft for next meeting in Kabul on February 23.
So far no breakthrough has been achieved since the Taliban have not joined it. However
inclusion of two heavy weights and Russia’s support has given strength to peace
process. Russia favors striking off names of Taliban from UN black list. Pakistan
is insisting that spoilers should be restrained, Afghan regime should
cooperate, and all factions of Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami should be invited and
use of stick avoided. Afghan government wants use of force against those
refusing to hold talks. Taliban, HN and FidaiMahaz have been asked to prepare
their list of demands, while Hizb-e-Islami is also being approached through elders
of tribes in Paktia.
The four have urged the Taliban to attend the
next meeting in Kabul on February 23 but the Taliban have made their
participation subject to fulfilment of their demands hereunder: A. Take off Taliban
leaders from the UN list of terrorists. B. Release of prisoners. C. Remove restrictions
on travel. D. Unfreeze their accounts in foreign banks. E. Intimate exact date
of departure of Resolute Support Force.
Determinants
Although analysts are busy painting doomsday
scenario, saying it marks the end of Taliban movement, but knowing their
resilience and unmatched sacrifices, it will not die down and someone else will
carry forward the baton; although none will fit in MullaOmar’s shoes. Their
position has eroded a little due to internal rifts, but Mulla Mansour commands
the largest and most powerful faction. Yet the 36 years’ war has fatigued them
and their 3-4 generations have got affected. They also want the war to end. The
country too badly needs a break.
Pakistan has suffered the most on account of
instability in Afghanistan. Pak-Afghan security is inter-linked and it is a
geo-strategic compulsion for both to remain friendly. While Pakistan realizes
it, Afghan leadership doesn’t. Earlier the Afghan leaders recognize this
reality and take practical steps to restore peace, better it will be for the
region.
Till such time anti-peace elements led by
India, Abdullah and Rashid Dostum are reined in, and the US stops its double
game, peace will not return in Af-Pak region.
Unless Kabul gets out of perverse influence of
India, cooperate rather than distrust Pakistan, and opts for a home-made
formula, sooner than later unity government would crumble and ANA would
splinter and pave the way for dreaded civil war.
In real-politick terms, stability in
Afghanistan and regional harmony among all countries surrounding it would
contribute in the fast-paced development of the region. Implication is that
this region cannot develop economically as long as Afghanistan remains
unstable.
With hostile India on its east, Pakistan can
ill-afford to have pro-India and anti-Pakistan regime in Kabul posing a twin
threat to its security.
History of Afghanistan teaches an important
lesson that peace and stability in Afghanistan is possible only after complete
withdrawal of foreign troops. And all stakeholders within the country are ready
to accept each other and arrive at a common arrangement. This was true in the
past and is valid today.
All depends whether the US after abandoning
Afghanistan would forsake its declared and hidden objectives for which it came,
spent trillions and suffered heavy casualties besides losing face and prestige
as a sole super power, or indirectly continues with its proxy war?
The US having lost the war, would like as a
minimum to have friendly government in Afghanistan to be able to pursue its
mercantile interests in Central Asian region.
Only joint and collaborative efforts can
tackle terrorism and not blame-game.
Ultimate solution to Afghan imbroglio will
have to be found by the Afghans themselves. Others can at best facilitate
dialogue.
Lastly, key to peace is with Taliban and none
else. Best course for people of Afghanistan is to honor the colossal sacrifices
of the Taliban and let them form the future broad based government without
outside interference.
Recommendations
Pakistan should grant ‘Most Favored
Nation’ status and land access to India through Wagah border with due prudence.
This should be linked with resolution of core issues.
Pakistan should assert and exert
its geo-strategic position and significance and extract its due share rather
than following a self-defeating policy of appeasement.
Pakistan should continue to
convince the US and Afghan government to limit India’s role in Afghanistan since
it is the chief trouble maker.
Concerted efforts be made to
counter Indian propaganda in Afghanistan aimed at poisoning the minds of
Afghans against Pakistan and remove their misperceptions.
Imaginative themes should be
coined to win back friendship of estranged Afghan public, particularly Afghan
non-Pashtuns.
Pakistan should be mentally and
physically prepared to handle post 2016 explosive scenario in Afghanistan.
Pakistan should help China in
further expanding its influence in Afghanistan to neutralize Indian influence.
At behest of USA, Pakistan
betrayed Afghan Taliban and suffered a great deal. They must not be ditched
again.
Conclusion
To conclude I would say that Pakistan has
remained under the deceptive magic spell of the US for too long without any
gains. Pakistan helped the untrustworthy USA to occupy Afghanistan and remove a
friendly regime and replace it with anti-Pakistan regime. It has been ceding
ground to win the friendship of India but couldn’t change the mindset of
Brahman rulers who have not reconciled to Pakistan’s existence and has missed
no opportunity to harm Pakistan. Unity government in Kabul is wholly in the
grip of USA and India and will continue to prefer India over Pakistan. It is
continuing to help India to destabilize Pakistan. Notwithstanding the need to
maintain friendly relations with all the three, this fatal affection must not
be at the cost of national interests and dignity of the nation. Policy of
appeasement should be replaced with policy of upholding our self-esteem.It is
Pakistan’s strategic compulsion to have a friendly government in Afghanistan
and it must strive hard for it using all its diplomatic skills.