Pakistan’s
Security and Political Situation
Asif Haroon Raja
Dynamics of World Global Politics
After the 2nd
World War, USA and Soviet Union emerged as two super powers and the two rivals
got locked in a Cold War for next 46 years. Bi-polarism had its own flaws but
to some extent it suited the weaker nations in the developing world. Break up
of Soviet Union in 1991 and shrinking to Russian Federation changed the world
dynamics from bi-polarism to uni-polarism and the US emerging as the sole super
power. In order to retain its uni-polarism for next 100 years, the US framed a
New World Order, which aimed at harnessing the world resources. To find an
excuse of retaining NATO after the demise of WARSAW Pact and Communism, the
threat of Communism was replaced with Islamand radical and defiant Muslim
States/Groups were marked as future enemies.
In the 21st
Century, 9/11was an earth shaking event which once again brought a change in
the dynamics of global politics. More are now convinced that 9/11 was an
in-house plot hatched by neo-cons and American Jews/Israel to implement future geo-strategic
and geo-economic objectives. It was intended to undermine Islam, pulverize
radical Muslim regimes and replace them with puppet regimes, introduce American
brand of democracy, steal the resources, and neo-colonise the Muslim world.
US-Israeli-NATO-India
nexus was formed to accomplish the agenda. Osama bin Laden heading Al-Qaeda who
was once a blue-eyed boy of CIA during the war against the Soviets in
Afghanistan in the 1980s was held responsible for the attacks in New York and
Pentagon on September 11 and made into a Frankenstein monster. His capture and
destruction of Al-Qaeda became the modus operandi for invading Afghanistan
ruled by Taliban. Global War on Terror (GWoT) was a cover up to initially
invade and occupy Afghanistan and make it into permanent military station for
subsequent covert operations in the region and to capture the untapped
resources of Central Asian Republics (CARs) right up to Caspian Sea. Later on,
Iraq was to be captured to change the boundaries of the Middle East and steal
oil. Arab Spring in 2011 was a step in that direction.
Rather than
making the world peaceful, ill-intended GWoT has made the world turbulent and
unsafe. Al-Qaeda which was confined to Afghanistan has spread its tentacles far
and wide and it now aspires to change the Capitalist world order with Islamic
Order. Hundreds of terrorist groups are playing havoc in the affected Muslim countries
and terrorism has now seeped into Europe. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria,
Yemen, Somalia, Turkey, Egypt, are most affected. The ISIS has carved out a
Caliphate which includes parts of Iraq and Syria and has become a major threat
in the Middle East. It has spread its arms into Afghanistan and is trying to
gain a foothold in Pakistan. Unilateralism has bred insecurity, particularly
among the Muslim countries. Civil war in Syria raging since March 2011 has
become a flashpoint because of entry of Russian air force and militias of Iran
and Hezbollah in support of Assad regime. Turkish forces are the latest entry.
While the US wishes
to maintain its hegemony over the world and to capture the mineral resources of
CARs, Caspian Sea and Middle East, Israel seeks to establish ‘Greater Israel’.AdidYenon
had given out the map of ‘Greater Israel’which stretches from River Nile to
River Euphrates.Lt Col Ralph Peters had also in his article written in
Pentagon’s publication in 2006 published a map showing changed boundaries of
Middle East. Baluchistan was shown as an independent State.
India believing
in the myth of Akhand Bharat aspires to change the boundaries of South Asia by
Balkanizing Pakistan and Afghanistan. In this regard, RAW’s former chief Dr.
Amarjit Singh in his article in Indian Defence Review in 2013 sought
elimination of Pakistan by making Baluchistan, Sindh, Punjab independent, but
under the control of India; and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)-FATA merged with
Southern and Eastern Afghanistan to form ‘Greater Pashtunistan’, and Northern
Afghanistan to form a separate county.Amarjit exuded confidence that the West
would not shed tears on the demise of troublesome Pakistan. He urged Indian
leadership to knockout Pakistan when it was dizzy and imbalanced.
The US want
Israel to become the unchallenged power of Middle East and India to become the
policeman of South Asia with its influence extending up to Asia-Pacific. It
also wants India to become a bulwark against China and help in containing
China. The US has been helping the two countries to accomplish their respective
dreams. It has destroyed the militarily and economically powerful States of
Iraq, Libya and Syria in Middle East, while it has facilitated India in gaining
a strong presence in Afghanistan and in bolstering India’s conventional and
unconventional capacities. Indo-US navies are collaborating to dominate Indian
Ocean and now US-Japan-India alliance is in the making to confront China in
South China Sea.
The US is
desperate to checkmate ever growing economic resurgenceof China which is its
chief rival and for that reason intends to shift its strategic pivot from the
west to Asia-Pacific Region. Russo-China alignment, China’s domination and
militarization of South China Sea, China-Pakistan collaboration and above all China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) are matters of serious concerns for Washington. Operationalization of CPEC which connects
Sinkiang with Gwadar seaport will break America’s strategic encirclement of
China and India’s strategic encirclement of Pakistan. The duo is making frantic
efforts to scuttle CPEC.Another aspect which is an eyesore for the US,
Israel and India is Pakistan’s nuclear program, which the trio is looking for
an opportunity to disable.
Although commonality
of interests have brought India, Afghanistan, USA and NATO on one platform,
however, India’s strategic relationship with USA which has been blossoming
since 1993 is out of expediency since it has its own ideological goals of
converting India into a Hindu State and subsequently creating Maha-Bharat.Target of India is Pakistan while targets
of the US are China, Pakistan and Russia.
Though Afghanistan
is war torn and divided on ethnic lines between Pashtuns and Northern Alliance
of non-Pashtuns, it forms the critical space. Without its stabilization, none
can make profitable use of the resources of CARs. The Taliban are rapidly
gaining ground in Afghanistan and the Afghan security forces backed by Resolute
Support Mission (RSM) are finding it difficult to contain their resurgence.
Departure of RSM will create a big security vacuum in Afghanistan which India
helped by the US is eager to fill. This will prove calamitous for Indian
military, as had happened in Sri Lanka in 1987, where it had to beat a hasty
retreat in the face of Tamil Tigers onslaught. Criticality of security situation in Afghanistan has impelled USA to
maximize pressure on Pakistan to fight and expel all Afghan Taliban allegedly
hiding in Pakistan, or else force them to ceasefire and hold peace talks.
Instability in
Afghanistan has affected Pakistan the most, particularly because of deep-rooted
involvement of RAW-NDS network in Baluchistan, FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
Pakistan has successfully dismantled all the bases of TTP and its affiliates
and flushed out militants of all hues including Haqqani network. The runaway
militants of TTP and Jamaat-e-Ahrarpatronized by the two intelligence agencies are
now using bases of Nuristan, Kunar and Nangarhar for cross border attacks.
The US has been
playing a double game with Pakistan since September 2001 by pretending to be a
friend and an ally but in reality, Pakistan was marked as a target. Under the
pretense of friendship, Pakistan has been profusely bled by making use of
proxies. It has now removed the mask of friendship and come out openly in
support of India to harm Pakistan and derail CPEC. After the series of high
profile economic, nuclear and defence dealswith India, the US military has now
signed ‘Maritime’, ‘Strategic Communications’, and ‘Logistics’ Agreements with
Indian military and has adopted an aggressive posture against Pakistan. President
Obama referred to Pakistan as an ‘abysmally dysfunctional country’. Chairman of
the US Joint Committee on Foreign Affairs Matt Salmon stated, “We should
completely cut off all funding to Pakistan”. In his and ZalmayKhalilzad’s view,
Pakistan is a State sponsor of terrorism. Other members of the Committee chimed
that Pakistan is an ‘epicenter of terror’ and its military and intelligence
assets are behind every act of terror committed across its borders. Some senior
US Congress Senators are spewing venom against Pakistan and openly supporting
separatist agendaof rebellious Baloch. John Kerry has endorsed India’s demands
to take concrete steps against Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad and probe
Mumbai and Pathankot attacks. The US-China-Pakistan-Afghanistan grouping for Afghan
peace has been replaced with US-Afghanistan-India alliance. Indian military is
now actively supporting ANA in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s Security Paradigm
Pakistan is a
nuclear power with robust armed forces that are second to none. In fact
Pakistan Army is the only one in the world that has successfully fought foreign
backed terrorism on its soil and to a large extent rolled it back. Pakistan has
abundant resources and is blessed with resilient manpower which despite
suffering the most in war on terror and on account of energy crisis and
dwindling economy, they have not lost their spirits. The people are fully
behind the Army and want it to eliminate scourges of corruption and terrorism. Pakistan
is central to the resolution of Afghanistan and peace in the region. Nevertheless,
Pakistan suffers from infirmities and vulnerabilities mainly due to leadership
crisis, effete and corruption prone political class, snakes in the grass and
meddlesome role of India in particular. These maladies has made the country
lurch from one crisis to another.
Pakistan was
subjected to an international conspiracy in 1971. India and former USSR were
the architects of the conspiracy and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman led Awami League and
MuktiBahini were the tools used to dismember Pakistan and create Bangladesh. Thirty
years after that tragedy, a new set of conspirators ganged up after 9/11 to
tear apart Pakistan. This conspiracy is much bigger in dimension and dangerous
in intent. Pakistan was to be befriended and then cut to size. In this, India
is being supported by USA,Afghanistan, UK, Israel and the west in general,
while the TTP in northwest, BLA, BRA, BLF in Baluchistan MQM in Karachi as well
as section of 3 million Afghan refugees, segment of Pak media, NGOs, human
rights organizations, are the tools employed to accomplish their objectives.
The Indo-US-Afghan
nexus are using Afghan soil for cross border terrorism in Pakistan for the last
14 years to weaken Pakistan from within and create conditions favorable for
India to launch its military instrument. Water terrorism was launched by India
to make Pakistan a water scarce country. Orchestrated propaganda campaign is
designed to discredit Pakistan and its premier institutions. Cultural invasion
was let loose by India in 2004 after signing deceptive peace treaty to loosen
morals of the youth and slacken their warrior spirit. Media war has succeeded
in injecting secularism, obscenity, immorality, extremism and intolerance, while
psychological operations have created divisions in society, political
polarization and despondency.Ironically,
the media portrays the real perpetrators of terrorism as innocent and victimsof
terrorism, and the victims as terrorists. Pakistan is blamed for the failures
of the US led ISAF and Afghan security forces against the Taliban in
Afghanistan.
The current tutored
theme harped by liberal writers in Pakistan is that Pakistan has got isolated. Isn’t this isolation far better than being
in the company of double dealing so-called friends who have been constantly
inflicting tens of thousands of wounds on the body of Pakistan and its people
all these years?The other theme vigorously pursued by social, print and
electronic media is to portray 3rd time elected PM Nawaz Sharif (NS)
as a devil.
Indo-US-Afghan manipulative strategies are calculated
attempts to strategically encircle Pakistan, destabilize and destroy its
economy, isolate it, and be in a better position to browbeat and blackmail it
and make it accept India’s hegemony and forget Kashmir. Situation in occupied Kashmir in the wake of martyrdom of freedom
fighter Burhan Wani has become explosive and it has unnerved India. Indian
security forces in IOK have broken all records of barbarism and besides firing
guns indiscriminately on the unarmed protesting Kashmiris seeking right of self-determination
and freedom from India, they are also using rubber bullets, tear gas, chilli
bombs/grenades, and rubber pellets to blind the protestors. Over 100 people,
mostly children and women have lost their eyesight.
Anti-Pakistan
statement made by Modi on August 14, followed by the ugly situation created by Afghan
miscreants on border crossing points, Dhaka’s support to the cause of Baloch
rebels, terror attacks in Quetta killing 70 lawyers and others, Altaf’s tirade
on August 22, and two attacks on one day in KP on 2 September were timed tostep
up chaos and build pressure on Pakistan to desist from extending moral,
political and diplomatic support to Kashmiris. All terror attacks were claimed
by Nangarhar based Jamaat-e-Ahrar.
Taking advantage of frostiness in Pak-US relations,
India in concert with the US is likely to step up efforts to isolate Pakistan,
get Pak Army and ISI declared as rogue outfits aligned with terror groups and
impose sanctions on them; levy economic sanctions on Pakistan on charges of
abetment to terrorism, stage another false flag operation of the kind of 2001
and 2008 to justify mobilization of its armed forces and forcing Pakistan to
deploy its forces on the border and thus relieve pressure on its proxies. Taking
a cue from Modi’s evocative utterances on August 14, India is likely to
intensify covert operations in Baluchistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and AJK in coming
months since these regions fall within the CPEC.
Pakistan armed forces are up against threats from
eastern and western borders backed by USA, NATO and Israel and internal threat fomented
and supported by foreign powers. Three dimensional threat and not so friendly
Iran has placed the military in a quandary, thereby further relying on nuclear
deterrence for safeguarding the integrity and sovereignty of Pakistan.
Engineered
Rise in Political Temperature
Having failed to
cow down Pakistan through policy of coercion, threats and intimidation and
bloody covert and overt operations, the detractors have been trying hard to
draw a wedge between civil-military relations and to provoke highly popular Gen
Raheel Sharif to seize power. Failing in this, they have now once again egged
on disgruntled political parties in opposition to dislodge the governmentso as
to halt work on CPEC and mega development projects and alsohalt operation in
Karachi which has reached the culmination point. Hungering for power, some
political parties have ganged up and have raised the political temperature
through politics of agitation. They have closed their eyes to the looming
internal and external security threats and the dangerous agenda of enemies of
Pakistan and are playing into their hands. None is interested in reforms or
getting rid of cancer of corruption. Their sole aim is to get rid of NS, who
has managed to make visible improvements in the fields of economy, energy
sector, foreign exchange reserves, stocks exchange and in putting life into
almost dead state corporations. Electric power shortfall is likely to be
overcome by end 2017.10400 MW will be added to the national gridto end energy
crisis.Above all, NS has remained firm in tackling the scourge of terrorism which
is laudable. Three conflict zones of FATA, Baluchistan and Karachi are
reasonably stable and incidents of terrorism have dropped down substantially.
NS is still the
most popular leader as can be gauged from the results of bye-elections, local
bodies’ elections and elections in AJK. On the contrary, Imran Khan’s
popularity has dented and PTI’s fortunes have declined, and so is the case with
PPP, remote controlled by Zardari from Dubai, which has little hope of
capturing some space in Punjab and elsewhere other than Sindh. MQM is now minus
Altafand Farooq Sattar has dissociated his MQM (Pakistan) from London based MQM
Rabita Committee and Altaf. This divorce is doubted by many but all political
parties are in favor of giving Sattar a chance to prove that the newly named
party has bid farewell to politics of violence, fascism and blackmail. Pak
Sarzamin Party under Mustafa Kamal (an amalgam of rebels of MQM) in Karachi is
insisting that MQM should be banned and Altaf prosecuted under the charge of
treason. Coming weeks will see intensification of power tussle between Sattar
and Kamal. Possibility of their merger is dim. So far, London MQM faction is
quiet but it is claiming that Altaf is still the supremo of MQM. What is evident is that Altafhas dug his own
grave. His own follies have made him the most detested man in Pakistan. The MQM
will never regain monopoly in Karachi as it had enjoyed since 1988 under Altaf.
Regardless of
soiled image of MQM, the PTI caught up in the whirlpool of hatred against
Nawaz, secretly aligned itself with MQM in Karachi in recently held local
body’s elections just to deny chairmanship to PML-N’s candidate. This secret
deal was in violation to a six-party grouping including PML-N pitched against
MQM.
In the wake of
economic turnaround and fast paced completion of $46 billion worth CPEC which
is termed as a game changer,the opposition parties are apprehensive that they
stand no chance of winning in May 2018 elections and as such the only way out
is to discredit Nawaz on the issue of Panama Papers and make him resign or get
him disqualified. Hence the ill-timed agitation by PTI-PAT-PPP and Sheikh
Rashid. The myopic opportunists are playing the card of corruption for
political gains. This can be assessed from the fact that the PPP which had
broken all records of corruption during its last tenure is also part of the
anti-corruption team. NAP, MQM, JUI-Fhave stayed away.Mid-term elections
desired by PTI are a recipe for disaster.
What is
needed to be done?
1.
Civil-military relations must
remain on one page to take Operation Zarb-e-Azb, Frontier Corps operation in
Baluchistan and Rangers operation in Karachi to their logical conclusion.
2.
Army is sensibly supporting democracy
and it should not be misled by vested groups to derail the ruling government
and should let it complete its full term.
3.
20-point National Action Plan
must be implemented in letter and spirit to treat chronic ailments and make
Pakistan healthy by changing its internal environments.
4.
CPEC must be completed as early
as possible. Deployment of Special Security Division for the protection of
entire length of CPEC and the Chinese workers is a step in the right direction.
5.
Media must be made to work in
accordance with code of ethics and to promote cause of Pakistan rather than
facilitate foreign agenda.
6.
Pak-Afghan and Pak-Iran border
management must be further tightened to prevent infiltration by agent
provocateurs and terrorists.
7.
Process of return of Afghan
refugees must continue.
8.
Full support must be extended
to the Kashmiris living in open prison. Our exterior maneuver should expose the
ugly face of India and convince the UN/international community to play their
role in resolving the oldest dispute in accordance with UN resolutions.
9.
In the wake of grave threat to
the security of Pakistan, besides keeping Full Spectrum Deterrence fully
operational and armed forces kept operationally fit for hot and cold wars,
Pakistan must have its own proxies to counter Indo-Afghan sponsored proxies.
10.
Pakistan should sign 10-year strategic
defenceand maritime agreements with China,binding China tohelp in defending the
CPEC if threatened, and taking active part in any war with India backed by its
allies. To reinforce this alignment, Russia and SCO should be added.
11.
The government must be pressed
to carryout electoral, judicial, bureaucratic, police, madrassas reforms and to
undertake across the board accountability of the corrupt and criminals.
12.
All out efforts must be made to
bring back looted wealth stashed in foreign banks and offshore companies.
13.
Elimination of nepotism and
favoritism, restoration of merit and dispensation of cheap and speedy justice
will dilute extremism, and cure the cancers of corruption and terrorism.
14.
Pakistaniat and patriotism must
be inculcated among the youth through cultural and moral reformation programs.
Media can play an important role in this regard.
15.
Stop self-defeating policy of
appeasement and that too at the cost of national interests, differentiate
between friend and foe, stay focused and build much needed unity.
Conclusion.Quaid-e-Azam’s motto
“Unity, Faith, Discipline” needs urgent reincarnation. We must not forget that‘united
we stand, divided we fall’. United front will not only counter the grave threat
posed by Indo-Afghan-US nexus, but also the threat from within which is the main
threat to the security and integrity of Pakistan. External and internal threats
can be effectively countered through collective efforts of the nation and not
by the armed forces alone. Our focus should be on putting national interests
above self-interests, integrating the divided society and fostering unity, adaption
of golden principles of Islam, pushing the cart forward collectively rather
than indulging in fruitless tug of war, and most importantly improving the
economy to sustain multiple pressures. For this, we need self-cleansing to
become a proud nation.
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