Disqualified
Nawaz Sharif’s road journey to Lahore
Asif Haroon
Raja
Panama case
dented Pakistan’s progress
Pakistan had begun to get stronger at
the start of 2016 after tidying over energy crisis, economic crisis, and
existential threat of terrorism. Target killings, kidnapping for ransom and
extortion in Karachi had almost ended. Up swingingof macro-economic indicators together
with launching of $46 billion worth CPEC opened up broad vistas for economic
progress and prosperity. The dream of making Pakistan an Asian Tiger looked
real. Amid the happy tiding Panama scandal cropped up from out of the blue
which gave a chance to the political rivals of PML-N to block and pull down the
rising graph of affluence. From April 2016 onwards, the PTI assisted by electronic
and social media riveted the nation towards Panama issue alone. Removal of
Nawaz Sharif (NS) from power which Imran Khan (IK)relentlessly pursued since
June 2013became his goal. This ambition bred negativism, intolerance,hatred and
dissipation of morality.
Culture of allegations, abuses,
slander became a norm because of which social and human values dipped low. NS
was presented as the most corrupt man this country had ever seen and
responsible for the afflictions of Pakistan. For unknown reason, the apex court
hearing the high profile case gave suggestive and loaded statements, thereby providing
fodder to the media to indulge in sensationalism. It made no effort to curb
media war by both sides. Notwithstanding the outright negativity of PTI and rating
hungry media, the ruling regime kept its focus on development, while the
security forces kept fighting the foreign paid proxies.
Impact of Supreme
Court decision
The decision of 5-member Supreme
Court Bench (SCB) on July 28 against NS made his opponents particularly IK led
PTI euphoric, but shocked the ruling PML-N and its allies. The PTI didn’t
bother about the political vacuum that occurred and its hazardous repercussions,
but rejoiced over the thought that victory was within its grasping reach. Its
optimism rested on the assumption that the PML-N fort would crack up and at
least 50 MNAs would join PTI or PML-Q. Lot of work had been done in this regard
and it was expected that old PML-Q lawmakers who had reverted to mother party
and some others would join the celebrations of PTI on July 30. These defectionsin
their view would make it impossible for the PML-N legislators and their allies to
win simple majority of 172 seats for the next PM and thus pave the way for
early elections.
Apparently, the wind started to blow
entirely in favor of rivals of NS after his disqualificationfrom holding public
office for life. The PML-N seemed to be on a downhill journey as a national
party with no hope of recovery. For them NS and his family had become history and
there was nothing stopping PTI from gaining power. It was shortsightedness and wishful
thinking and nothing else.
Political
vacuum bridged
So far nothing of the sort has
happened as assumed by foes of NS. The defendants of the Panama scandal case and
the ruling regime accepted the Supreme Court(SC) decision but didn’t agree with
it and decided to opt for review petition and to take the case to the people. On
01 August, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was elected new PM securing 221 votes. Allied
parties NP, PkMAP, JUI-F and MQM (Pakistan) voted for Khaqan. Opposition
couldn’t put up a consensus candidate because of which their votes splintered. PPP
candidate won 46 votes, PTI’s candidate Sheikh Rashid 33 votes and Jamaat Islami
candidate 4 votes.
Soon after, a new 43-member cabinet
was sworn in and the political voidwas filled. Slot of Foreign Minister lying
vacant for 4 years was also filled by Asif Khawaja, while Ishaq Dar and Saad
Rafique retook their old ministries of Finance and Railways. Ahsan Iqbal and Khurram
Dastagir took over Interior and Defence Ministries respectively. It has now
been decided that Khaqan will continue to perform as PM till next elections in
May 2018, while Shahbaz Sharif (SS) tipped as his relief will stay put as CM Punjab.
SSwill also take over as president of PML-N after vacation of the seat by NS.
No dent in NS
popularity
What is most bewildering for many is
that NS has not lost his old gloss and popularity within the party parliamentarians
and among the voters of PML-N. After his disqualification, the parliamentary
party meeting on Jul 29, 2017 reposed full confidence in NS leadership and with
one voice termed the July 28 verdict as a judicial oversight, and vowed to
support him. He named the new interim PM and the future PM and also approved
the names of new cabinet members. A glimpse of his popularity among the people
was seen on his two-way journey to Murree and back to Punjab House and now it
is being further echoed by the human sea of his fans moving with his convoy to Lahore.
Game
changing road journey
NSchanged his initial decision to
proceed to his hometown Lahore on August 6 via Motorway and has embarked on a 400
km road journeyalong GT Road on August 9. His cavalcade will pass through
PML-N’s 14 constituencies and at each constituency NS will be welcomed by
slogan-chanting and flag-waving Leaguers. He will terminate his journey at Data
Durbar Lahore by next Friday.
Huge preparations were made and
security arrangements tied up. PM Khaqanand PML-N lawmakers hugged him and saw
him off at Punjab House at 1130 hours while many accompanied him. His fans emotionally
kissed his vehicle and showered rose petals. A container equipped with resting
facilities accompanied NS and catered for night-stay facility at one-two cities.
Senior hawkish leaders of PML-N have started to heat up the political
temperature to trigger sympathy wave for NS. The epic road caravan may prove to
be a game changer.
Anxieties of
foes of NS
Alarmed and flabbergasted by the
sudden change of tide, the PTI leaders are making hue and cry as to how come a
disqualified PM on whom references have been filed in the trial court can take
part in politics. They demanded that he and his family members should be put on
exit control list. A case was moved in the SC on August 7 requesting it to
disallow NS from undertaking the road move. The petitioner took the plea that
the move is intended to discredit the judiciary. Impressed by the turnout of
PML-N workers and fans, the SC turned down the petitions.
Woes of IK
IK is faced with court cases ranging
from his party’s foreign funding to purchase and sale of his flat in London and
purchase of huge land in Banigala in Isbd over which he built a palatial house
and his luxurious lifestyle without any source of income. He is at risk of
being disqualified. Bounce-back by PML-N has distressed him.
As if these worries were not enough, his
party’s MNA Gulalai from Waziristanlevelled accusations against IK and called
him characterless on account of sending her erotic messages on his mobile phone.
She stated that scruples of women parliamentarians and workers in PTI are
unsafe. She also accused PTI Ministry in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) of being involved
in corruption.
It created an uproar and put IK on
the defensive. PTI women parliamentarians feeling sheepish are in ugly mood and
are berating well-educated and bold Gulalai who is eloquently and forcefully putting
forward her grievances. She has left her party but much to the chagrin of PTI,
she refuses to vacate her seat. A parliamentary committee has been formed to
probe the truth, but IK is reluctant to appear before it.
Efforts to
scare NS
To frighten NS, PTI recalled PAT
leader Tahirul Haq Qadri (TuQ) based in Canada. Opportunist TuQwith dubious
track record seized the opportunity and suddenly landed at Lahore on August 8
and held a public meeting at Nasir Bagh which was attended by PTI leaders and Sheikh
Rashid. TuQ announced that he willreinvigorate the July 2014 Model Town case in
which 14 workers of PAT were killed during a clash with the police. After the
fall of NS, TuQ hopes to get SS and Rana Sanaullahdisqualified through apex
court/JIT and then demolish the PML-N Punjab fort. He exhorted his followers to
be prepared to stage a decisive sit-in in case blood money was not paid to the
families of 14 victims.
Propaganda machinery of PTI has been
geared up to further heap abuses on the cast-off NS and IK has decided to hold
a public meeting on 13th to water down the impact of NS road move.
Punjab PPP leaders are also shamefacedly trying to undermine the strength of
supporters of NS who have come from far distances in large numbers. ARY TV and
some other channels as usual are giving false coverage. There is so much of
rush that the huge caravan of vehicles and walkers has till 9 pm not reached
Committee chowk on Murree Road where NS will hold his first address. NS will
spend the night at Punjab House Rwp from where he had started in the
morning.
IK’s
improper sarcasm
IK has sarcastically asked NS that he
should tell who signaled him to come on roads. Before NS answers his silly
question, IK should first tell the nation who signaled him and TuQ to undertake
a long march from Lahore to Isbd in July 2014, assault the PTV building,
Parliament and PM Houses, stage a six-month sit-in at D-Chowk to paralyse the
government and put people of twin cities to great inconvenience. IK should tell
who told him to lock down Islamabad on Nov 2, 2016.He should answer Javed
Hashmi’s allegation that he changed his mind when a better course was offered
to him by the apex court judge to remove NS and dissolve the NA through courts.
IK should state who signaled rabble
rouser TuQ to reach Lahore posthaste and make it difficult for NS to enter
Lahore on 9/10 August by staging a sit-in and blocking the entry road. TuQ had
almost decided to do so but then sense prevailed and he changed his mind. He is
also required to extend support to PTI candidate contesting NA-120 seat, the
result of which will prognosticate the future political strength of PML-N and
PTI.
IK had lost in May 2013 elections but
he never reconciled to it despite the apex court ruling that elections were
free and fair. His allegations were entirely based on suspicions and
conjectures. NS is not reconciling with the apex court judgement based on
controversial JIT report and he smells conspiracy.
NS says that he was not disqualified
on account of corruption, but on a frivolous charge of receiving salary from
the Capital FZE Dubai based Company owned by his son Hassan Nawaz of which he
was a Chairman. NS says he was not convicted on charges made by the
petitioners, but was sentenced for not mentioning the salary he had not drawn,as
‘receivable’ (asset) in his 2013 income tax return. He has decided to seek a
review petition and to request the chief justice to appoint a larger bench to
hear his case.
Some queries/realities
While IK was never questioned as to
why he has not reconciled with 2013 elections; NS is being ridiculed for not
reconciling to the apex court judgement?
One may ask PTI leaders as to why
they have got so upset over the road convoy led by a disqualified and powerless
man. If according to them he is a highly unpopular and despised leader, then
what is the worry? Let the people boo him. This road move will give a clear
glimpse of NS popularity or unpopularity.
Unlike IK, NS doesn’t intend to stage
a prolonged sit-in or to lock down a city to cause inconvenience to the public.
It will be a two to three daysjourney and will be undertaken peacefully.
If IK has been holding public
meetings for the last 3 years to convince the public that he was a clear winner
in 2013 elections but he lost on account of massive rigging, why can’t NS
present his case to the public that he has been wronged and the people’s
mandate not respected?
IK despite being out of power, took
the country for a ride all these years and made a mockery of all the state
institutions including the Parliament, Election Commission and the SC, but was
not obstructed, imprisoned or disqualified. While he left no stone unturned to
boot out NS, the ruling regime refrained from deposing PTI government in KP despite
constant coaxing by Fazlur Rahman. It also didn’t make any effort to block his
politics of slander through social media.
NS was a democratically elected
leader with a heavy mandate and had produced highlypleasing results in his
4-year rule. Not a single mega corruption scandal took place whereas there were
dozens during PPP rule under Zardari. This is what has pained NS that in spite
of his all-round performance which none can deny, he has been unseated from PM
seat prematurely and disqualified for lifeunder Articles 62 (1) (f), terming
him as dishonest and untruthful.
The matter doesn’t end here. Several
references have been sent to National Accountability Bureau (NAB) against NS
and his 3 children for trial and given time frame to start the proceedings within
45 days and complete the trial in six months. On top of it, a SC judge has been
mandated to supervise NAB’s progress which is unprecedented. Supervision of JIT
by 3-Member Implementation Bench was also unparalleled.
NS has strong reasons to suspect that
the decision was predetermined and feels he has the right to present his case
before the people who had voted him to power and still hold him in highest
esteem. He rightly says that he never committed a penny worth corruption
throughout his 35-year political history. He draws strength from the unity
within the ranks of PML-N and the eyebrows raised by legal luminaries and
analysts both inside and outside the country about the court’s decision. During
his addresses on his way to Lahore, he may share his grouses with his
supporters.
Views of
Legal experts/analysts
Legal experts say as to why the SCB
disqualified him for life on the findings of JIT when the respondents had
raised so many objections against the biased attitude of JIT.
They ask as to why it announced the
verdict without ascertaining the validity of references through the trial court,
whether he was guilty or not? The nation would have been quite satisfied had a
charge of corruption, or embezzlement or money laundering been proven against NS.
They ask as to what was the grave
emergency to take this extreme decision at a time when the country was faced
with grave internal and external dangers, it was getting ripe for an economic
takeoff, and there were few months left for the next elections?
Wasn’t a
smooth political transition better for growth of democracy than futilely trying
to cure the cancer of corruption by axing one rich family?
Was it that the decision couldn’t be
pended because the country was economically
sinking as had happened in 2012/2013?
Or the ruling elite was callously gobbling up the resourcesand
breaking all records of corruption as was done by previous regime?
Or the country was at the verge of disintegrationdue to terrorism
in FATA, Baluchistan and Karachi as was the case in 2013?
Or the constitution and rule of law were being compromised and
there was wide scale nepotism and poor governance?
Or the regime had become a security risksimilar to Memogate
scandal in Oct 2011, and Altaf Hussain’s diatribe against Pakistan on August
22, 2016?
If NS had become a security risk
owing to his suspected softness and closeness with India on account of business
interests, he should have been disqualified on this charge and not on Iqama. But
which leader has ever been punished on account of his/her ties with India?
If any of these fears were
non-existent, then should it be assumed that urgency of IK to seize power in a
jiffy was considered as most pressing and in national interest?
Current
Situation
The internal situation although
returning back to normal is in actuality in a state of flux. The ones who have
engineered the political instability after dividing the society to halt
Pakistan’s economic progress must be sitting with cans of kerosene oil in their
hands to fuel ongoing political polarization and instability.
PML-N, PPP, PTI, PML-Q, JI, JUI-F and
PAT together with smaller regional parties are flexing their muscles. PTI-PAT
nexus is eager to achieve their objectives by resorting to violent means, while
PML-N leaders want NS to be absolved by the apex court and restored to power.
Hafiz Saeed heading Jamaatud Dawa and
placed under house arrest has decided to enter the political arena by launching
his party. Besides Samiul Haq partyJUI (S) and ASWJ, all defunct extremist
groups will join this party to save themselves from the claws of Raddul Fasaad.
Possibility of grand alliance of religious parties like MMA cannot be ruled
out.
The proxies on payroll of foreign
agencies are eagerly waiting for the political duel to get out of control so
that they can strike their targets with ease.
Daesh has been brought into
Afghanistan by CIA-RAW for use against Afghan Taliban and Pakistan and to keep
the pot of terrorism boiling for next 10 years.
Threat
perception.
Externally, Pakistan faces hostile India, Afghanistan and USA; lukewarm Iran,
not-so-friendly GCC states. Sinister objectives of Indo-US-Afghanistan against
Pakistan remain unchanged. Internally, war on terror is still raging with no
end in sight. Politicians are at each other’s throats. PML-N relations with the
Establishment and judiciary are tense.
Hoax of
corruption and accountability
Is it not a fact that menace of
corruption in Pakistan is endemic; it has seeped into all segments of society
and the society suffers from moral decay? Political system is dogged by
corruption. Can across the board accountability be undertaken without the
accountability bill,which is yet to be framed and passed by the parliament,
without an independent Ehtesab Commission and without correcting the flaws in
criminal justice system?
Elites of Sindh notorious for
corruption have saved themselves by framing their own accountability law to
keep NAB at bay. NAB in KP was inactivetill Gulalai’s revelation. Holy cows
have remained above law. Articles 62 (1) (f) and 63 are most likely to be
scrapped by the parliament since none among the parliamentarians pass the
litmus test of these clauses.
If that be so, who will perform the
surgery to remove the malignant part and cure the cancer of corruption? From
where will we find honest and upright surgeons and if we succeed in finding
some, will they be allowed to perform the surgeries of the entire elite class
when seen in the backdrop of divided society, polarized political class, dynastic
politics, curse of materialism, feudal nepotism, and lack of social justice?
Can this cancer be cured before first
reforming the education system, carrying out ideological reformation of the
society as a whole to upgrade moral turpitude, reforming the electoral system
to elect morally clean leaders, reforming bureaucracy, and last but not least
reforming the judiciary to dispense justice fairly?
Ground
realities
It must not be forgotten that PPP has
turned into a regional party and suffers from leadership crisis and internal
malaise. Possibility of its revival is so far bleak. Political forces in Sindh
are joining hands to end PPP misrule in Sindh.
PTI has no seat in Sindh and
Baluchistan.PTI has failed to deliver good governance in KPsince IK has shown
disinterest in parliamentary affairs.It has not won a single seat in
bye-elections and its performance in local bodies’ elections was dismal.It
seems that PTI may lose power in KP in the wake of its opponents ganging up to
move vote-of-no-confidence against Pervez Khattak.With so-called electable PPP
leaders with murky past record swamping PTI, the party has lost its trumped up credentials
of being a party of cleans. The reputation of IK himself is at stake. It has
become a party of opportunists hungering to enter corridors of power. So, on
what moral ground it claims to build Naya Pakistan and how does it qualify to
start across the board accountability process if voted to power unless it first
cleanse its own house?
PML-N is the only national party with
strong roots in all the provinces including AJK and Gilgit Baltistan. NS is the
lone leader who was elected PM thrice with heavy mandates, but each time he was
ousted from power prematurely on unconvincing grounds. Yet, he has some
feathers in his cap. He continues to act as a glue for his party and his appeal
to his voters will be tested in the ongoing road journey. The way the sea of
his supporters are welcoming him has dispelled the propaganda of PTI that he
has lost his popularity. He is still the most popular leader of Pakistan. While
Bhuttoism has kept PPP alive, sway of NS, which has further wired up because of
the sympathy wave, will help PML-N to once again win next elections with a
thumping majority.
It is still to be seen how the PTI
and PAT reacts to the power show of PML-N, and whether it will have any impact
on the judicial course. Reversal of the SCB decision is least likely, unless a
larger bench is formed and it takes a lenient view and it calls off trial by
NAB and reduces his disqualification sentence.
Judiciary had gained ascendency over
the parliament after its July 28 verdict, but has come under pressure as a
result of power show of NS and its credibility is under duress.
After NS, SS is the best bet for
Pakistan. Besides his outstanding administrative skills, statesmanship, rich
experience of handling problems of compound nature and leadership qualities, he
is a go-getter, workaholic and indefatigable. He enjoys deep ties with
Presidents of Turkey and China and has earned their respect. He is an asset for
Pakistan and he has the capability, drive and willpower to build Naya Pakistan
and none else. Although the critics will criticize this suggestion saying it
will strengthen dynastic politics, but owing to leadership crisis, this factor
may have to be ignored.
Courses open
Under the circumstances, the
preferred course open is to forge unity, let the political process continue
unhampered, strengthen economy and save the country from external and internal threats,
and work for smooth transition of power next year. Till then, carryout
essential reforms, pass effective accountability bill and empower NAB. Other weaker
courses open areacross the board accountability without an apparatus and then
elections, or abrupt change of regime followed by accountability.
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