The Intel
Insider Brief sources report that Pakistani intelligence officials have recently been engaged in a spate of closed-door meetings. The topic of discussion? The ouster of Asif Ali Zardari and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) from power and the engineered return of Nawaz Sharif.

The Why
The news in and of itself should not be surprising, and for multiple reasons. First, the Pakistani military/intelligence establishment has always distrusted and disliked the PPP. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Benazir's father, recognized this and established the Federal Security Force in an attempt to offset the influence of the ISI. The FSF was promptly disbanded after Gen. Zia-ul-Huq's 1979 coup. On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif is a child of the establishment, promoted and sponsored by Gen. Zia himself.

People may question "“ what about General Ashfaq Kayani and his stance on political non-interference? The answer and second reason likely lies in the decreasing ability of the military establishment's inability to control low-to-mid-level personnel as has been demonstrated by the numerous security lapses and leaks that have led to numerous terrorist strikes against sensitive targets.

This brings us to the third reason. Many in Pakistan's military and intelligence apparatus remain sympathetic to their former proxies as is Nawaz Sharif. Sharif is well liked by Pakistan's right and religious fundamentalists. His return would likely mark the end to the Pakistan Army's push in the country's northwest.

The How
If Pakistani intelligence is truly attempting to engineer Nawaz Sharif's return, the question is, how do they intend on doing so? The answer may lie in what Insider Brief sources recently intimated to us. In the on going discussions over Zardari, it was mentioned that the last phone call to Benazir Bhutto minutes before her assassination was made by Zardari himself. He reportedly asked Bhutto why she was sitting in the car and not outside as the "people wanted to see her."

The story could conceivably be true "“ there's no doubt that Pakistani intelligence tapped Bhutto and Zardari's phones "“ and Zardari did indeed have a lot to gain from her death. But the far likelier explanation could be that Pakistani intelligence is working to build up a story to incriminate or at the very least, implicate Zardari in the court of public opinion.

The other explanation is that these meetings are just indicative of pressure tactics being used by President Musharraf and the "establishment" as they tussle with Zardari and his civilian government over major issues such as the restoration of deposed judges, tackling terrorism and handling Pakistan's economic issues.

The Lesson
The major take away is that the government must act with surety and decisiveness. A constellation of forces is aligning against the sitting government as it waits idly by, paralyzed by indecision and infighting. If it doesn't act, the PPP will have passed up a chance to consolidate fresh democratic foundations for Pakistan the opportunity to tackle issues from a liberal platform.

These closed-door meetings were just warning shots that time is running out.