news analysis: What next after Musharraf?

By Najam Sethi

As we predicted, President Pervez Musharraf has resigned rather than drag the nation through an acrimonious and ill-defined impeachment process that would have bled the economy and deepened the political paralysis in the country. He took this decision not because it was the graceful and generous thing to do but because political necessity dictated it after he lost the support of America and the Army. Where do we go from here?

After his speech, Gen (r) Pervez Musharraf met with his former friends and benefactors, took a salute of honour and quickly repaired to his official abode in Rawalpindi in an unflagged car. The likelihood is that he will stay here quietly for some days before taking a flight out of the country, probably on the pretext of Umra to Saudi Arabia. I don't think the Zardari regime will create any obstacles in his physical exit, even as Mr Sharif's spokesmen continue to bay for his blood as a matter of popular pressure tactics on Mr Zardari to concede their other demands.

Their first demand is the restoration of the judges, including Iftikhar Chaudhry. In this they will have the support of the lawyers movement and most of the media. But I don't think Mr Zardari will succumb to this demand quickly. Instead, he is likely to reiterate his position that there should be a constitutional amendment covering the restoration of the judges, ousting of the president's power under 58-2B and indemnifying the Musharraf era which included the NRO and the current Supreme Court headed by Justice Hameed Dogar. This will lead to another round of uncertainty which throws the country into a spin again.

Their second disagreement is likely to be over the nomination and election of the next president. Mr Zardari has said time and again he thinks it is the PPP's right to appoint a person of its choice. Mr Sharif insists otherwise. Mr Zardari's candidate may be Mrs Faryal Talpur, his sister, who is an accomplished politician in her own right, and a Sindhi as opposed to the Punjabi prime minister. But they could jointly end up fielding either someone from Balochistan or the NWFP as a compromise candidate. If that fails, Mr Sharif could go his own way and put up Ghaus Ali Shah who has rushed home on Mr Sharif's orders after a voluntary seven-year exile.

Meanwhile, as the two sides wrangle in the full glare of the media, two critical issues are likely to fall by the wayside. The first has to do with bread and butter issues of the people and the concerns of the domestic and international business community. I don't see any dramatic initiatives in the making regarding poverty alleviation or inflation. The stock market and the rupee will also remain under pressure despite their slight revival yesterday. The second has to do with the war on terror which concerns America and the Pakistan Army. This is an unpopular war. That is why the Army and Mr Musharraf quickly handed over its "ownership" to the civilians shortly after governments were formed. I don't think Mr Zardari is going to have the time or inclination to articulate an anti-terror policy that satisfies America, especially since he will be reeling from a hostile media bent on restoring the judges and convinced that this is America's war and not Pakistan's war. Under the circumstances, the US will probably take matters into its own hands as far as possible in FATA, regardless of its blowback on Mr Zardari.

Will the coalition survive these problems? I can't imagine it will break apart tomorrow. They mean to torture us some more before they start torturing each other. But it cannot endure for long now that the Musharrafian glue that held them together is gone. Unfortunately, since Mr Zardari is in the driving seat, all the blame will be heaped on him for all the accidents that are bound to occur ahead.