"Let there arise out of you a band of people inviting to all that is good enjoining what is right and forbidding what is wrong; they are the ones to attain felicity".
(surah Al-Imran,ayat-104)
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User Name: Asif_Haroon_Raja
Full Name: Asif Haroon Raja
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Fate of USA will be similar to vanquished empires


Asif Haroon Raja


USA comprise of fifty states. It has 9.16 million sq km land, 19924 km coast line 307 million population production worth $14 trillion. It is the biggest economic power and strongest military power in human history. Its new world order formulated in early 1990s envisages ruling the world for next 100 years by maintaining economic domination and preserving military hegemony. While its immediate neighbors Canada and Mexico pose no threat to USA, its eastern and western flanks are protected by Atlantic and Pacific oceans respectively. Its most powerful navy having 11 nuclear powered aircraft carriers, 9 expeditionary strike groups and 33 combat brigade teams together with air defense system protects its coast lines and controls all major sea lanes. America has a nuclear arsenal containing 2400 nuclear war heads and array of ballistic and cruise missiles. NASA dominates the space. This massive force is capable of reaching any troubled spot in the world and deal with the situation effectively. It spends over $500 billion on defense but all its military ventures have so far failed. USA is biggest charity giver in the world but is also largest debt ridden country. Its population is 6% of world population but it eats up 50% of world resources. 


Despite USA being termed as the most secured country in the world, it is still vulnerable to nuclear attack and terrorists attack from within. Russia, China and North Korea being hostile to USA and having the long range nuclear tipped ballistic missiles are capable of hitting its main land. This fear impelled Bush Administration to install highly expensive missile defense shield to destroy any hostile designs in flight. Incident of 9/11 and that too in the most secured cities of USA jolted the Americans and added a new dimension to the threat perception. To prevent any future terrorist attacks on its homeland new laws to tighten internal security were formulated. Policy of preemption to nip the evil in the bud was implemented. To overcome their fear psychosis, Afghanistan was militarily occupied after causing massive destruction. The world rallied behind Afghan venture but when USA wanted to invade Iraq unjustly on fake charges, the whole world advised Washington not to do so. Despite massive protests, the neo-cons lured by selfish economic interests devastated Iraq. Riding on a high horse, Bush truculently defied international laws and dubbed certain defiant states as evil states.


The new millennium saw worst bloodshed of the Muslims. The horrific acts of USA resulted in massacre of more than 1.5 million Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq; rapes and hair-raising tortures to thousands in infamous Baghram Base, Abu Gharib and Guantanamo ghoulish prisons for years; destruction of property, infrastructure, houses, farms, orchards and agriculture; millions of women getting widowed, children orphaned, millions made homeless; serious injuries to millions with many maimed for life. The so-called civilised world took active part in this massive genocide and mayhem of the people of two victim countries based on fabricated charges. George W. Bush and his team as well as Tony Blair blatantly lied to the world to justify invasion of Iraq. The eight years Iran-Iraq war stoked by USA cost massive casualties and had been described as the region’s bloodiest since Mongol invasion of Iraq in 1258 AD. US invasion of Iraq in 2003 surpassed that figure of fatalities to 1.4 million. The US wants to retain its global ascendancy through use of brute force; diplomatic, political and economic coercion; and rewards in return for a price.


USA had declared victory soon after occupying Afghanistan and Iraq but its claims proved elusive. Eight years have lapsed and it finds itself in dire straits. The US moral, political and diplomatic strength has eroded since 9/11. It failed to shape a more prosperous and more just world. Its arbitrary military adventures haven’t enhanced global security environments. By pulling out of Koyoto Treaty, US displayed total disregard to world environment and exposed its selfishness. It evoked frostiness in Europe against USA. Installation of Missile Defence Shield in Eastern Europe and interventionist policies in ex Soviet Republics has fanned tension with Russia and has paved the way for recommencement of cold war. The US failed to intimidate North Korea and Iran to rollback nuclear programs. It also failed to bring a regime change in Iran through covert means. Iraq and Afghanistan are in ruins and Al-Qaeda led terrorism has become an international phenomenon. US military has taken a backseat in Iraq but US troops are still suffering casualties and security situation is appalling.


In Afghanistan, performance of US-Nato forces has been dismal on socio-politico-economic and military fronts despite spending huge amounts. It is costing USA $100 million per day. Taliban command influence over 70% of the Afghan territory. Troop surge instead of limiting militancy has resulted in higher rate of casualties of foreign troops. July and August were worst months. In July, 45 and in August 51 American soldiers died. In first 8 months of 2009, there were 182 US fatalities compared with 155 in 2008. 21000 additional US soldiers are being shifted from Iraq which will raise the total to 68000 and all told strength of ISAF to 100,000, but Gen McChrystal is pleading for 20,000 more troops. He has issued a dire assessment of military situation in Afghanistan and his report been endorsed by Gen Petraeus and Adm Mike Mullen. British Army CGS Gen David Richards is also in favor of reinforcement of 30,000. Pentagon is left with no troops to spare while NATO countries are not prepared to send more troops for a failed venture. National security adviser Gen James Jones has opposed troop increase and told Gen Chrystal not to ask for more troops. 24% Americans back troop surge while 45% favor troop reduction. 


On 25 August, four analysts at Brookings Institute, Bruce Riedel, Michael O’Hanlon, Tony Cordesman and Kim Kagan portrayed a bleak and terrifying vision of state of affairs in Afghanistan in the wake of presidential elections. Turnout in elections was 30-40% and results mired in allegations of massive rigging. They opined that significant escalation of war is necessary to avoid utter defeat. They said that even if tens of thousands troops were added, it would not be possible to say with surety what will be the outcome. They blamed Bush administration for failing to formulate coherent strategy, for keeping troop level very low, for poor intelligence and for not building up Afghan Army. Riedel says that Obama inherited disaster from Bush Administration and to turn it around overnight will be an illusion. None of these learned analysts talked of political solution, about negotiations or diplomacy. They didn’t say that Obama instead of correcting the faulty course by de-escalating is reinforcing failure by escalating the escalation.  


Opposition against futile Afghan war in USA is growing with every passing day. As against 46% in last April, opposition in America has shot up to 57% in the Mark Silva poll taken on August 28-31. Support to war has fallen from 53 to 42%. 62% say the US is not winning war in Afghanistan and that war isn’t worth fighting. However, Obama Administration still maintains that it is winnable. Support for war is fast waning among the Democrats especially on the left. Obama’s approval rating has dropped from 69 to 50% while his health care program has come under censure. After eight years of occupation, both Pentagon and US State Department have belatedly realized that military victory in Afghanistan in unachievable. Unless USA lets go its recklessness and arrogance, gets rid of influence of Jews and neo-cons and quits Afghanistan, its fate as a sole super power will be similar to the vanquished empires that had remained under the misconception that they would remain supreme for all-time.



The writer is a defence and security analyst based at Rawalpindi and author of several
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