Pakistan being
strategically encircled
Asif Haroon Raja
Pakistan has lurched from
one crisis to another in its 70 years history. Notwithstanding the deleterious
role of our leaders, India has been principally behind Pakistan’s woes. Failing
to reconcile with existence of Pakistan, it has been hatching conspiracies and
resorting to overt and covert means to undo Pakistan. Currently, Pakistan is
going through testing times. The conspirators had started weaving the web inside
and around Pakistan in 2002. The web is in completion phase and the strings are
now being tightened. This web could not have been possibly woven without the
connivance of ruling elites and conspirators. The overall security situation of
Pakistan is more dangerous than it was in 1971.
The external strategic
encirclement can be seen in the form of India’s strong presence in Afghanistan,
domination and nuclearization of Indian Ocean by Indo-US Navies, bolstering of
India’s economic, military and nuclear strength by the US, and India given a status
of NATO member and given access to US military bases. Sudden rise in tension
between Pakistan and its neighbors culminating in recently concluded
Indo-Iran-Afghan strategic agreement at Chabahar duly backed by USA, the US
belligerency against Pakistan and India-Gulf States increasing cordiality with
India are ominous signs and are links of the same chain to encircle and isolate
Pakistan. The US after making India a member of MTCR tried hard to make India
member of NSG,but failed because of China’s veto. It is now making efforts to
make India and Iran part of Afghan peace process to undercut Pakistan’s role.
Internally, RAW and NDS
backed by CIA are in collusion with anti-Pakistan TTP and its affiliates in
northwest, BRA, BLA, BLUF in Baluchistan and MQM in Karachi. Foreign agencies
are recruiting agents from Afghan refugee camps and 5 million aliens carrying
fake ID cards. These elements are stoking terrorism in the conflict zones as
well as other parts of Pakistan. Segment of foreign paid electronic and print
media, social media, pseudo intellectuals, NGOs, human rights activists, and
people like Hussain Haqqani, Pervez Houdbhoy, Asma Jahangir, Farzana Bari,
SarmadMarvi, ImtiazAlam are promoting the foreign agenda by spreading gloom and
doom. All out efforts are in hand to draw a cleavage between the government and
the Army and to provoke Gen Raheel Sharif to take over.
Despite colossal efforts put
in by Pak security forces and achieving spectacular results, random acts of
terror are continuing and so is bad press against the Army. Reasons are
existence of sleeping cells and hideouts in urban centres, facilitators and
financers. Spies and foreign agencies are tucked behind every bush in Pakistan.
Above all, the terrorists are making use of safe havens in Afghanistan, Iran,
London and South Africa. Most wanted Fazlullah and Khalid Khurasaniand their
groups are hosted by Afghan government in Kunar, Nuristan and Nangarhar in Afghanistan,
and used by RAW and NDS to undertake acts of terror in Pakistan. Separatist
Baloch Sardarsliving in exile in Geneva, London and Washington are being given
full support by their hosts. MQM leadership in London has been prodded to renew
terror activities to disturb peace in Karachi. All this is being done under the
patronage of USA.
Military is the lone
institution which is taking the looming threats seriously. It is performing its
duties zealously and producing results. Gen RaheelSharif has not only led the
Operation Zarb e Azb from the front in a commendable manner and earned
worldwide praise, he has also been highlighting Pakistan’s security concerns to
the world leaders convincingly and giving befitting responses to the
aggressions of India and Afghanistan. He forthrightly informed the visiting
Iranian President about Iran soil being misused by RAW against Pakistan. He gave
anappropriate reply to the US aggression on May 21, killing Taliban Ameer
Mullah Mansour in Baluchistan without taking Pakistan in confidence. He stated
that mere condemnation was not enough and made it clear that next time the
drone will be struck down. The government’s response towards multiple threats
to Pakistan’s security is lackadaisical and doesn’t measure up to the gravity
of the threat.Of late some improvement is discernible as was evident from
Sartaj Aziz statements. Performance of Sindh government is poorest since it is
part of the problem.
All political parties in the
opposition are opportunists and are solely interested in toppling the ruling regime
and gaining power and are least concerned about the tense internal and external
security situation.
Inferences
Ø
With eastern, western and southwestern
borders unsafe and Saudi Arabia and Gulf States getting more inclined towards
India, Pakistan finds itself in a nut cracker situation.
Ø
It is time for Pakistan to
differentiate between friend and foe and to radically refurbish its foreign
policy and tailored to guard and serve Pakistan’s national interests conscientiously.
Ø
Pakistan is fast losing breathing
space and is getting isolated. Its national security policy should be devised in
a manner to provide adequate perimeter of security around Pakistan.
Ø
Friendship with USA has neither made
Pakistan economically strong, or politically stable, or even secure. Our rulers
must come out of the magic spell of the US which has all along used Pakistan to
serve its short term objectives and then left it in a lurch once its interests
were served.
Ø
The US and the West consider India as
their natural ally, while Pakistan is branded as epicenter of terrorism and
marked as a target. Pakistan’s nuclear program remains the most sought target.
Expansion of US Embassy in Islamabad is aimed at keeping Pakistan perpetually
destablised and dependent upon USA. Blame game and do more policies have
similar motives.
Ø
India is the sworn enemy of Pakistan
and will not miss any opportunity to fragment it. To expect that India will
resolve Kashmir issue or will help in improving the economics of Pakistan will
be like chasing rainbows.
Ø
Afghanistan under the Northern
Alliance heavy government in Kabul will remain hostile to Pakistan. As such, it
is imprudent to continue extending support to an unpopular and pro-India setup.
Ø
Iran is now a US ally and is being
propped up to retake its role of the policeman of the Persian Gulf. It is
likely to join the Indo-US nexus to dominate Indian Ocean.
Ø
Iran’s interests in Afghanistan clash
with Pakistan and will like Northern Alliance, which it had harbored and
supported since 1994 to remain in driving seat.
Ø
Iran is closer to India than with
Pakistan. Indo-US-Afghan-Iran axis has now become a reality and a nightmare for
Pakistan. Iran has drifted away and can no longer be relied upon as a
trustworthy neighbor.
Ø
India-Chabahar-Central Asia trade
route which will pass through Afghanistan will become operational only when
Afghanistan gets stable and that is not likely in the foreseeable future. More
so, Central Asian Republics (CARs) will not benefit from Chabahar in the
absence of oil/gas pipelines.
Ø
For India, route to CARs through
Pakistan is shortest and cheapest while route via Chabahar is long, vulnerable
to disruption and expensive and not cost effective for its manufactured goods
when competing with China.
Ø
Chabahar cannot compete with Gwadar
since the latter is the largest deep seaport in the region and former is
shallow. Kashgar connects Gwadar through Gilgit-Baltistan and avoids
troublesome Afghanistan.
Ø
Chabahar can at best act as a spoiler
for Gwadar, but cannot undermine its strategic significance.
Ø
Commissioning of CPEC will break the
strategic encirclement of Pakistan as well as of China and will make Pakistan
secure, integrated and prosperous.
Recommendations
·
China and Turkey are the only two
dependable and all-weather friends that would stand by Pakistan. Friendship
should be transformed into strategic partnership to avoid complete isolation.
·
Pakistan must get closer to Russia
through China and should make it part of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group.
CPEC and Pakistan’s membership of SCO is good beginning.
·
Pakistan should use all its diplomatic
skills to ensure that Chabahar and Gwadar collude rather than collide to draw
maximum benefits from CPEC. Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline can help in keeping Iran
friendly.
·
Saudi proposed 34-member alliance of
Muslim States, with Gen Raheel Sharif as its Commander, must be taken seriously
and made into a NATO like group to confront threats of terrorism and proxy wars
and to ward off Pakistan’s isolation.
·
Pakistan must create a powerful
Psychological Operations Department and Cyber Wing to counter
Indo-US-Western-Jewish media war and cyber threat.
·
Indo-US-Afghan deadly covert
operations against Pakistan and the cost Pakistan had to bear must be brought
to the notice of international community through Publicity Wing and our
Diplomatic Missions abroad.
·
Kashmir cause and Indian atrocities in
Occupied Kashmir must be drummed up with full vigor, asserting that there can
be no peace in the region without resolution of Kashmir dispute.
·
Borders with Afghanistan, India and
Iran must be made secure through effective and foolproof border management
system.
·
The trench constructed alongside the
western border in Baluchistan must be extended to cover the entire length of
Durand line, and gates constructed on all crossing points to regulate movement.
·
Similar trench should be constructed
along Pak-Iran border.
·
Issue of Durand Line must be taken up
with the UN and resolved.
·
Since the US and Kabul has refused to
kill or nab Fazlullah, Pakistan should plan a sting operation to bump him off
either through ground action or drone attack.
·
RAW-NDS-CIA-MI-6-Blackwater network in
Pakistan as well as banned terror groups and their sleeper cells must be
eliminated to make Pakistan safe.
·
Before it is too late, decision about
RAW connected political party should be taken.
·
A law should by passed by the Parliament
that violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty through drone strikes are unacceptable
and in future invading drone will be shot down. Taking up the matter in the
UNSC is a step in the right direction.
·
It must be made clear to the US that
destabilization of Pakistan and willful disruption of CPEC will destabilize the
whole region and Pakistan will be left with no option but to cut off relations
with USA and to exercise its nuclear option to safeguard its integrity and
sovereignty.
·
Pakistan must remain fully focused on
early completion of CPEC.
·
Pakistan military must remain ever
vigilant to defeat India’s ‘Cold Start’ and ‘Hot Start’ operations and at the
same time keep its nuclear deterrence fully honed.
·
20-Point National Action Plan must be
religiously and speedily implemented.
·
Combing operations against
anti-Pakistan elements must continue to identify and crush snakes in the grass.
·
Politics of agitation must be banned.
·
3 million Afghan refugees hosted since
1979 must be sent back since they have become a real security hazard besides an
economic burden.
·
5 million aliens must be regularized.
·
The government should shun its
perverse policy of political expediency and should start an across the board
accountability to root out cancerous corruption which is eating into the vitals
of the country.
·
Judiciary must come out of its
hibernation, undertake comprehensive reforms and start delivering.
·
Presently most of the anchors,
journalists and so-called intellectuals are dancing to the tunes of their
foreign pay masters and are supporting foreign agenda by promoting liberalism,
undermining Islamic values, giving currency to rumors and falsehood,
accentuating societal divides and spreading despondency.PEMRA must play its
role to discipline the media by enforcing code of ethics.
·
There is a dire need for government run
think tanks that can monitor the ongoing trends and emerging threats, and
suggest suitable course of actions to the decision makers.
·
In the ongoing testing times, unified
front is the only answer to confront internal and external challenges.
|