Army Chief Seeks Balance

ISLAMABAD -- With militant violence rising, the Pakistani government in disarray and Pervez Musharraf no longer president, the future of Pakistan rests increasingly on Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, the nation's army chief.

So far, the 56-year-old career soldier, who took over from Mr. Musharraf as head of the military late last year, has struck a fine balance through the political crisis that included Mr. Musharraf's resignation Monday.

Gen. Kayani made it clear that the army didn't want to be dragged into the political fray -- which has happened repeatedly during political crises in the past -- and he was lauded by the public and politicians for staying in the background.

Yet after Mr. Musharraf announced his departure, he inspected an honor guard at his residence in Islamabad and is under army protection in Rawalpindi, a garrison town that is the headquarters of Pakistan's military. "It was a 'hands off' signal to the civilian politicians," said one army official.

In coming weeks, Mr. Kayani may have to engage in more balancing acts if he wants the army to remain outside of Pakistani political life.

Pakistan's ruling coalition is on the brink of collapse as the two main parties continue to disagree over whether to reinstate judges fired by Mr. Musharraf last year. Pakistan is facing demands from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Afghan government, and its own people to do more to eliminate militant violence in Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan. Insurgents claimed more than 70 lives Thursday when two suicide bombers blew themselves up outside a military weapons complex about 32 kilometers from Islamabad. If the situation doesn't improve soon, Gen. Kayani may face extreme pressure to intervene.

"His future role will be in proportion to the performance of the civilian government," said Talaat Masood, a retired general and former secretary of defense production. "The vacuum has to be filled if civilian rule fails."

Neither a military spokesman nor Gen. Kayani could be reached for comment.

The son of a soldier, Gen. Kayani received his commission in the Pakistani army in 1971. His father died while Gen. Kayani was training at the military academy, putting the burden on him to support his family; he is the eldest of four brothers. He received some training with the U.S. army at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., in 1987 and, as a three-star general, was named commander of the prestigious Rawalpindi Corps in 2002.

In 2004, he became head of Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's premier spy agency, which spearheads the hunt for al Qaeda militants as well as providing internal security. It also has been accused of having a hand in terrorist attacks abroad, most recently the suicide bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul last month, which killed dozens. Pakistan denies any involvement.

Gen. Kayani is known for being a man of few words. But on occasion he invites small groups of newspaper editors and columnists for late night discussions on topics ranging from politics to terrorism to extremism. In a recent chat, he made clear his view of the militancy. "We have to defeat them decisively," he said.

The militancy is taking an increasing toll on Pakistan's troops and denting the sterling image of the army. Gen. Kayani has spent much of this year trying to rebuild morale, according to Hasan-Askari Rizvi, author of a book on Pakistan's military. He has improved housing facilities, boosted rations and declared 2008 "The Year of the Soldier," a public-relations campaign meant to highlight the positive role the military plays in Pakistan.

The army's image also is improving as it reduces the political interference it was long known for. Army intelligence agents in the past sought to manipulate elections, said Asad Durrani, a retired lieutenant general and former ISI chief. As the army gains in popularity by focusing on fighting, "Why would we want to risk that by getting involved again?" Mr. Durrani said.

Pakistan's leading politicians also have little interest in seeing the army reassert itself. "I'm against any army's involvement in political affairs," said Nawaz Sharif, leader of the junior partner in Pakistan's fractious coalition. As prime minister in 1999, he was overthrown in the coup that brought Mr. Musharraf to power.

The army and the ISI retain huge influence over Pakistan's foreign policy and security considerations ripple through diplomacy, economic policy and other government decisions as the country tries to hold itself together. Efforts to suppress the militancy emanating from the border region with Afghanistan, as well as a separatist movement in the province of Baluchistan, are intertwined with basic government initiatives such as poverty alleviation and the allocation of gas and other resources, said retired Brig. Javed Iqbal, former military secretary in Mr. Sharif's government and a classmate of Gen. Kayani's at the Pakistan Military Academy.

Mr. Iqbal said Gen. Kayani is sincere in his desire not to get involved in politics but may be dragged in anyway. "It's going to take time for Pakistan to strengthen its political institutions," he said. "Whether they like it or not, the army is part of the decision making."