New Phase of
Russo-Turkish Relations
-Dr.
Abdul Ruff
_______________
From
traditional rivals to regional partners, Russia and Turkey have come a long way
for fruitful relations by mutual understanding, now focusing on deepening
collaboration in energy sector. Today, essentially Russian-Turkish relations in
the energy sector have risen to a strategic level.
With all powerful Recep Tayyip Erdogan
having moved from being prime minister to president and former Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu taking over the premiership, Turkey seems likely to sustain its
current policy toward Moscow, and Russia under another powerful president
Vladimir Putin willingly reciprocates.
Russia and Turkey have had a
long, often tumultuous relationship,
and some of their difficulties are not so distant. Their current relations are
of particular significance in the context of the tense confrontation between
the United States, the European Union and Russia over Ukraine.
After
Ukraine
Turkey has abstained from
Western efforts to punish Moscow over Ukraine, maintaining a rather moderate
tone. Even before Moscow annexed Crimea earlier last year, Russian-Turkish
relations had been on a dramatic upswing, with two-way trade reaching some $32
billion in 2013 (mostly Turkish imports of Russian natural gas) and Russia
becoming Turkey’s No. 2 trading partner, behind Germany. Turkey had also
emerged as Russia’s No. 1 trade partner in services. Two years ago, Russia and
Turkey agreed on visa-free travel for their citizens.
On the political front,
Russia and Turkey established the High Level Cooperation Council in 2010.
Although Moscow and Ankara do not always agree on how to proceed on issues,
their communications appear to be far more regular and substantive than Putin’s
exchanges with any other NATO member, especially after the alliance shut down
the NATO-Russia Council early 2014.
For Russia, the advantages
of an improving relationship with Turkey are powerful and multidimensional.
Turkey has got a well-developed NATO infrastructure and it’s unwillingness to
participate in such a confrontation would sharply limit NATO’s options. The
symbolism of Turkey’s unwillingness to join the US-European effort to isolate
Moscow and to impose costs for the Kremlin’s conduct in Ukraine allows Russian
leaders to assert their independent views.
The combination of Russia’s
energy resources and Turkey’s location straddling three continents is appealing
to Russia, and Turkey provides state-owned Gazprom with yet another route
around Ukraine to Europe. Turkey also appears to share some of Moscow’s
perspectives on the need to reform the international financial system to
accommodate emerging economies.
South Stream
project
Pressed by European and American
economic sanctions over Russia's actions concerning Ukraine, Moscow appears
to be opting for a traditional strategy toward the West: divide
and conquer. Russia has left behind all bad tensions with Turkey and has
forged fruitful energy ties.
Russian
involvement in Ukraine has harmed the economic interests of both Europe and
Russia, however left USA largely unaffected. Annexation of Crimea generated
chain reactions leading to vital policy changes in the Kremlin. Moscow has been
making efforts to punish European nations for siding with USA in crippling
Russian economy. Putin said last week Russia was dropping the South Stream
project that would cause serious economic jerks in Europe and was instead
planning to build a pipeline to Turkey and could set up a gas hub on the
Turkish-Greek border to supply Europe with gas.
During a visit to Turkey
on Dec. 1, President Vladimir Putin described Turkey as
a "strategic partner" and proposed a new, 63 billion
cubic meters per year gas pipeline running under the Black Sea
from Russia via Turkey to the Greek border, which would serve as
a forwarding point to Europe. Russia pledged a 6 percent
discount on the price of the 14 billion cubic meters of gas
available for sale annually to Turkey from the pipeline.
President Putin announced in Istanbul that the pipeline project was off, doomed
by a legal dispute with the European Union that has its roots in a deepening
standoff between the West and Russia. Russian state gas company Gazprom
said January 12 that it would set up a company to build a gas pipeline to
Turkey, days after President Vladimir Putin announced the new project.
South Stream represented the biggest
infrastructure investment in Serbia in Europe in the almost 15 years since the
former Yugoslav republic emerged from international isolation with the fall of
late strongman Slobodan Milosevic. The cancellation deprives southeastern
Europe of an alternative supply of energy to the disruption-prone route through
Ukraine, but there was a financial cost too. States along the route with
fragile economies were banking on a big payday from construction, shipment fees
and cheaper gas. For Serbia, which has long touted its ties with fellow
Orthodox Christian nation Russia, the blow is particularly bitter.
Both given to a robust disdain
for the West, Putin and Erdogan share a strong personal chemistry,
which has helped them manage regional differences in the past. Turkish
Energy Minister Taner Yildiz called the new pipeline plan "Turkish
Stream”. Turkey could now propose to
Russia the construction of an integrated energy complex including an LNG
terminal at its border with Greece, as part of talks for a planned new natural
gas pipeline with its northern neighbor.
Russian Energy
Chess
The
Russians are trying to find ways to put pressure on EU members
because Austria is very keen to get South Stream gas. There is desire on the
Russian side to establish a closer relationship with Turkey
and eventually leverage energy ties to pull Turkey away
from Europe and closest to the Russian position. That is
definitely a motivation for canceling South Stream and for
directing huge flows of gas to Turkey's direction. Now
the proposed new pipeline would increase Turkey's gas dependency
on Russia, one of its largest trade partners, to over 75
percent, and would place the country more firmly inside the Russian
energy camp.
The BP Statistical Review of World
Energy says Turkey has long been keen to wean itself off Russian energy,
which currently accounts for an estimated 57 percent of its gas
needs, Although Turkey stands to benefit from Moscow's surprise decision
to drop the $45 billion South Stream natural gas pipeline project, it
raises questions about whether Turkey will become a pawn in the
broader energy contest between Russia and the European Union.
While the EU-backed Trans-Anatolian
Pipeline (TANAP) as has long been seen as the best bet to supply
Turkey and, ultimately, Europe, with non-Russian gas, "only limited"
Azerbaijani gas currently is available. On Dec. 8, just a week after
Putin's visit, the EU's foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, came
to Ankara to underline Turkey's strategic importance
for Brussels. Obviously, EU does not want strong turkey-Russia ties.
The deal has caught EU’s attention. So
far, EU officials have not publicly commented on the Russian-Turkish
initiative. Both the Turkish government and the European Union had
seen gas imports from Azerbaijan, a cultural cousin and close
ally of Ankara's, via the TANAP as the answer to decreasing
their level of energy dependency on the Kremlin. Russian President
Vladimir Putin has other ideas.
Turkey strives to turn itself
into an energy hub, not just serve as a transit country, but, until
now, Moscow has never allowed Ankara to resell its gas. Being
an energy hub means going beyond a transit state, so it will not be
just a bridge, but also distribute gas and make money out
of these deals. The price of the Russian gas remains
a potential stumbling block. While gas prices are usually pegged
to oil, each deal is unique. With oil prices falling by nearly
a third in the last three months, Ankara insiders were looking for a
discount of about 15 percent, rather than 6 percent. The Russian
president has indicated a further cut could be in the offing. So far,
only a memorandum of understanding has been signed between Moscow
and Ankara.
For all
the talk of a Russian-Turkish pipeline partnership, a rising
geopolitical rivalry exists between Moscow and Ankara that could hamper
deal-making. They disagree very fundamentally on Syria and Ukraine,
especially Crimea, where there is a Tatar minority. These are relatives
of the Turks. And the two countries do not agree on the Cyprus
issue because Moscow is known to stand behind the Greek Cypriot
administration. Such matters are minor ones and may not necessarily undermine
the new Putin pipeline initiative.
Russia is proving it was a super power and
has not lost all tools of international politics. As Europe began playing the
politics of economic hit on the Kremlin, Russia turned to s rival in the region
Turkey, the only Muslim nation in Europe, and cemented its ties with it.
__________
Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal,
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