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New Egypt: Brotherhood's Mohammed Mursi wins Presidency!
-DR. ABDUL RUFF
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I
In the country's first free presidential election in 60 years, Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood presidential candidate Islamist Mohammed Mursi (Morsy), a US-educated engineer, has won the presidency, defeating his rival the former air force general Ahmed Shafik in the second-round run-off. The Brotherhood put Morsy ahead by 52 percent to 48 on a turnout of about 50 percent. (Shafiq came second to Mursi in last month's first round, in which turnout among the 52 million eligible voters was only 46%) The count, which would make him the first civilian leader in Egypt, is yet to be officially announced. Official results from the Higher Presidential Election Commission (HPEC) are expected to be announced on Thursday. Whoever officially wins the race will have to deal with daunting internal and external challenges, apart from the question of when his constitutional powers will be decided by the next parliament.
On 16-17 June 2012 Egyptians voted in a two-day run-off election to choose their first freely elected president. Mohammed Mursi, head of the Muslim Brotherhood's political wing, was up against Ahmed Shafiq, former President Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister. Voting at 13,000 polling stations, spread across Egypt's 27 governorates. Mursi cast his ballot at a polling station in the city of Zagazig. Final results from the Higher Presidential Election Commission (HPEC) are due by 21 June, but are expected to arrive even much earlier.
Popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood has been on the rise. In the parliamentary election in January the Muslim Brotherhood won more than 11 million votes. Thirteen candidates contested the first round on 23 and 24 May, with none winning more than half of the votes in order to guarantee victory. Official results gave Mursi 24.8% and Shafiq 23.7%. Mursi won 5.7 million votes, and Shafiq was only 200,000 votes behind him. Amr Moussa, a former foreign minister and ex-head of the Arab League, had a higher profile and was widely expected to reach the run-off. But people rejected the Arab League dramatist.
The Muslim Brotherhood vowed to win the presidency despite the signs of opposition within both the military and judiciary, which is overseeing the vote. Mursi meanwhile sought to reassure the military and its supporters within the electorate that he would work closely with the generals. "As president, they will be in my heart and will get my attention... they will never do anything to harm the nation," he said. Aged 60,US-educated engineering professor, head of Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP),served as independent MP 2000-05, quietly spoken and viewed by some as lacking charisma, He has promised "stability, security, justice and prosperity" under an Islamic banner. His opponent Ahmed Shafiq, aged 70, meanwhile told a rally that the court rulings were "historic" and that the "era of political score-settling" had ended. He came second in last month's first round, in which turnout among the 52 million eligible voters was only 46%. Shafiq, a veteran fighter pilot and former air force chief. Appointed Egypt's first aviation minister, earning reputation for competence and efficiency and promoted to PM during February 2011 protests. Associated with Mubarak regime, though denies being backed by ruling military council and campaigned on a promise to restore security. Shafiq's success so far can be explained by a number of factors. He appears to have convinced large numbers of Coptic Christians and undecided voters that he can prevent the prospect of an Islamist president ruling in tandem with the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated parliament. Moreover, as a former military man, Shafiq appeals to voters appalled by the spike in crime that followed the fall of Mubarak.
The build-up to this weekend's run-off has been marred by a Supreme Constitutional Court decision that parliament had to be dissolved. A panel of judges - appointed by Mubarak - ruled that the law governing Egypt's first democratic elections in more than six decades was unconstitutional because party members were allowed to contest seats in the lower house reserved for independents. Mursi's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) won about 100 of its 235 seats in the People's Assembly by running candidates for individual seats. The ultraconservative Salafist Nour party also enjoyed similar success in seats designated for independents. If parliament is dissolved swiftly by the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf), whoever wins this weekend's presidential run-off could take office without the oversight of a sitting parliament, and without a permanent constitution to define his powers or duties. A 100-member assembly appointed by parliament earlier this week to draft the new constitution may also be dissolved. Islamists, liberals and scholars denounced the ruling as a "coup", saying they feared the ruling generals would take back legislative power.
II
In the latest twist on Egypt's tortuous path from revolution to democracy, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) issued a decree as two days of voting which set strict limits on the powers of head of state. On the eve of the election, it had already dissolved the Islamist-led parliament. At a lengthy news conference on 17th June to give more details, armed forces spokesmen insisted that their legislative power would be "restricted".
Liberal and Islamist opponents denounced a "military coup". "Military Transfers Power, to Military," ran the ironic headline in independent newspaper al-Masry al-Youm. Parliament speaker Saad al-Katatni, of the Muslim Brotherhood, said the declaration was "null and void". The Brotherhood had earlier urged Egyptians to "protect their revolution" after the Scaf dissolved parliament - dominated by the Brotherhood. Two days earlier, the Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that last year's legislative polls were unconstitutional because party members were allowed to contest seats in the lower house reserved for independents. On Monday morning, soldiers prevented MPs from entering parliament. Mohamed ElBaradei has described the document as a "grave setback for democracy and revolution". Former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabahi, who came third in the first round of voting and was the favored candidate of many in the protest movement, said the declaration was a "seizure of the future of Egypt". "We will not accept domination by any party,” Sabahi said.
The Brotherhood has contested the army's power to dissolve parliament and warned of "dangerous days" ahead. But few expect the Islamists, who were not in the vanguard of the revolt and spent much of the past year in uneasy symbiosis with the army, to launch a violent grab for power any time soon. The military council's "constitutional declaration", issued under powers it took for itself last year, was a blow to democracy, said many who aired their grievances on social media.
Obviously, there is less enthusiasm than there was for previous rounds of voting, and some have called for a boycott or spoiled ballots. There was little sign of the long queues that characterized the first round, or the parliamentary polls which took place between November and January. They seem to be particularly disenchanted with the choice Shafiq, a candidate seen as a representative of the old regime. Some activists have been distributing flyers in several Cairo metro stations calling for a boycott. Mursi's campaign held a press conference in which it said several electoral violations had been reported, and urged voters to report any incidents. There are only small queues outside polling stations in poor Imbaba district. The community appears split between the two candidates. "Dr Mursi is the sound of truth. I will not vote for any fallout (remnant of the old regime). I lived 30 years of oppression," says Iman, who wears the full face veil.
This lukewarm attitude of voters surprised no-one. The real surprise lay in the candidates who made it through to the second round. Mohammed Mursi, the last-minute choice of the Muslim Brotherhood Islamist movement, was a realistic contender for the run-off,. On 14 June, when the Constitutional Court ruled that the election of one third of the MPs last year was unconstitutional and called for the lower house of parliament to be dissolved. This has a direct impact on the presidential election, as the incoming president has to wait until a new parliament is elected and chooses the constitution that will define his powers. This will now take even longer than expected. The ruling generals have vowed to hand over power to the winner by 30 June.
Meanwhile, prominent political figure the Nobel laureate and former head of the UN's nuclear watchdog, Mohamed ElBarade, who wanted to replace Mubarak with support from the West, expressed his unhappiness over the polls. The third-placed candidate, the prominent left-wing lawyer Hamdin Sabbahi, polled 4.8 million votes. He immediately complained that the governing Supreme Council of the Armed Forces had rigged Shafiq's impressive showing by inflating the army vote.
III
The election is being held under the rules introduced several months after the revolution, mainly easing eligibility criteria which were passed under Mubarak and seemingly favored himself and his son, Gamal, then seen as the likely successor. The term of office was reduced to four years, and a two-term limit was introduced.
Egypt's ruling military council, the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (Scaf), has vowed to hand over power to an elected president by the end of June. The promise comes as votes are counted after Sunday's presidential elections, with the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Mursi claiming victory. However, the council had earlier issued a declaration granting itself sweeping powers over legislation and the introduction of a new constitution. Opposition groups condemned the declaration as a "coup". The Scaf have even guaranteed themselves jobs for life. However, the constitutional declaration issued by the Scaf effectively gives it legislative powers; control over the budget and over who writes the permanent constitution following mass street-protests that toppled Mubarak in February 2011. It also strips the president of any authority over the army.
The Brotherhood expressed its joy and defiance on the streets and may challenge moves by the generals that cast doubt on their pledge to hand over to civilian rule by July 1 - a promise supported by Egypt's U.S. and European allies, despite their deep misgivings about the rise of political Islam in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings across the Middle East. "Thanks be to God who has guided Egypt's people to the path of freedom and democracy, uniting Egyptians for a better future," Morsy, a former political prisoner, said in a victory speech in which he forswore seeking revenge or settling scores.
Hundreds of flag-waving supporters of the Brotherhood, whose members long suffered imprisonment, torture and death at the hands of the generals, gathered in Tahrir Square, where the anti-Mubarak revolution erupted in central Cairo 16 months ago. "Thank God, we have got rid of military rule and the police state," said Mona Issam, one of a group of cheering women clad in long robes and full-face veils. "We hope Morsy takes power from the military council and the army goes back to barracks. "God has given us victory. God stood by us and lifted the weight of oppression. We wanted an Islamic state. We lived like strangers in our land under the old regime. We were oppressed and Islam was not the law. I'm very, very happy. Thank God."
Some Major Observations
Mursi topped the poll. Speaking at his party headquarters, Mursi pledged to be a president for all Egyptians, adding that he would not "seek revenge or settle scores". Hundreds of Mursi's supporters gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square to celebrate his declaration of victory.
Since Mubarak's removal, Egypt has been gripped by a polarized political situation where the Islamists are locked in a sharp tug-of-war with liberal and secular parties. Political chaos has ravaged a vital tourist trade focused on pyramids and Red Sea beaches and the latest turn of events, by prolonging uncertainty, may further harm the economy. The military must be hoping that Egyptians are simply too tired of politics to protest, and are willing to go for stability whatever the cost. But the army's declaration was widely condemned in opposition circles. "SCAF isn't going to transfer any real power," Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert at George Washington University said on Twitter of the constitutional order. - "Back to the beginning"!
There is still a bit more uncertainty now in Cairo. The new president will also face the task of restoring security, which has deteriorated since the revolution, mainly because of the collapse of policing.
The new president is being elected without a constitution defining his powers. The process of writing a new constitution for post-Mubarak Egypt has faltered over differences between parties. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces insisted that the constitution must be drafted before the new president takes office on 30 June, but this is now impossible.
Under the latest order, writing of the new constitution may pass to a body appointed by the SCAF - if a court rules against the contested panel nominated by the now defunct legislature. The failure of the new parliament to agree a consensus body to draft a constitution - liberals accuse the Islamists of packing the panel with religious zealots - has left Egyptians picking their way from revolution to democracy through a legal maze while the generals control the map and change it at will.
Any new constitution would need approval in a referendum, with a new parliamentary election following. By a timetable contained in the decree, it would take another five months or so to complete the planned "transition to democracy". However, the experience of the past year has left many Egyptians doubting that the military, and what they call the "deep state" stretching across big business, Mubarak-era judges, security officials and the army, will ever hand over control.
All political parties appear to agree, however, that the president's powers should be curtailed to prevent a new Mubarak-like strongman from emerging. In any event, however, the new president would be subordinate for some time at least to the military council which last year pushed fellow officer Mubarak aside to appease street protests. The military made themselves Egypt's lawmakers after parliament was dissolved last week. Just as polls closed, the ruling generals issued a new constitutional declaration that will keep their hands on the reins of power and restrict the role of the new president. They have control over the national budget and heavy influence over who writes the new permanent constitution.
The ruling generals insist they are moving Egypt towards civilian rule. And with some newly restored powers of arrest and interrogation for soldiers, they are warning any effort to disrupt the run-off vote will be dealt with firmly. Major General Mohamed al-Assar said a ceremony would take place at the end of the month to hand over to the new president. If Mursi is confirmed in that role, a power struggle between the Brotherhood and the military - two of Egypt's strongest forces - could ensue.
Internally, the new president will have to tackle difficult political, social, economic, and security problems.
The economic situation poses one of the biggest challenges. More than 40% of Egyptians live below the poverty line, political uncertainty has led to the collapse of foreign investment, closure of factories, an increase in unemployment and the erosion of foreign reserves.
Egypt will play increasingly assertive role in regional politics in favor of Palestine and curtail Zionist global manipulations and ending their crimes. Relations with Israel are also a big issue, as Egypt will have to promote the genuine interests of Palestinians besieged by Zionist terror blockades and strive to help establish a much awaited Palestine state to exist without Israeli fascist attacks. Also, the issues of Egypt's share of water from the Nile Basin should be solved. Egypt's ties with African nations are another important issue.
Egypt requires peace. Mideast yearns for secure peace by finally resolving the Palestine crisis once for all. This can be done by appealing Israel to leave Mideast for good and resettle themselves in the West or let Palestinians live in peace by organizing their own nation. Externally, the new leader will have to maintain friendly strategic relations with both the West and Arab countries.
New Egypt will be qualitatively different in all respects from the one Mubarak had presented for many years.
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