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"Let there arise out of you a band of people inviting to all that is good enjoining what is right and forbidding what is wrong; they are the ones to attain felicity".
(surah Al-Imran,ayat-104)
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User Name: abdulruff
Full Name: Dr.Abdul Ruff Colachal
User since: 15/Mar/2008
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Mutual dependence makes USA and Russia secret allies
-Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal
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Collaboration

The Cold War rivals USA and Russia that threatened the whole world with awful disaster to the humanity by their ideological antagonism leading to possible wars have always maintained secret ties and business relations. They don’t fight war on their territories but only resort to strong rhetoric off and on and get other countries fight wars in their countries with or without arms sold by USA and Russia.  Afghanistan, Georgia and Ukraine are the best examples to show how these countries play international politics at the huge human costs outside their borders.  

The mutual dependence theory being advanced by the western strategists to unite USA and Russia makes Russia a favorite as the US led western powers need the Kremlin to advance their agenda globally.  Without the Russian support, Washington finds pursuing imperialist agenda extremely difficult at global scale, still Russia is considered to be a nuisance; its opposing strategy causes serious worry in western capitals.  

Sept-11 hoax created the preconditions needed for all anti-Islamic nations come together to feel strongly for what is known as war on terror but in fact a long  terror war on Islam and Islamic world. USA and Russia began working together since then.  

Despite their loud rhetoric against each other over Ukraine and Malaysian plane crash in Ukraine, among other issues, USA and Russia have been engaged in mutual cooperation since the end of World War One. Even during the so-called Cold war threatening the very existence of the world, American and Russia diplomats kept on meeting and deciding various issues though they did signal a cold fight on ideological grounds.


Both Russia and USA tired best to deviate from the plane crash issue by making conciliatory “discoveries”. The initial strain and tension with Western leaders was based on emotions and immediate political expediency, rather than facts. The USA appeared to back off when it presented its report on the investigation into the MH17 crash. US intelligence officials said that they have no evidence that the missile that was used to down the plane came from Russia.  Russia is responsible for "creating the conditions" but there is no evidence of direct Russian involvement in the shooting down of the airliner. The rebels did likely shoot down the Kuala Lumpur-bound plane, mistaking it for a military plane, intelligence officials said, citing satellite photos, social media postings and other intercepts.


Dependence


Europe cannot afford to antagonize Russia now or in the near future. Antagonizing Moscow carries the risk of fueling the conflict in Ukraine further, bringing with it the prospect of disrupted gas supplies to European customers due to instability in the transit country. Limiting trade with Russia would be damaging because the 28-nation EU sold goods worth 120 billion euros ($161.7 billion) to Russia last year, even if that was only 7 percent of the bloc's annual exports. Germany, Europe's biggest economy, accounted for one-third of sales to Russia, around 36 billion euros ($48.5 billion). Many of those goods could be restricted by sanctions: manufactured products including those used in defense and energy.

Germany is the swing state given its position at the heart of Europe and its weight as the EU's most populous country.  Britain, Poland and Sweden lead a group pushing for economic sanctions, and whose combined total exports to Russia are less than the size of those of Germany.  Some 6,200 German firms are active in Russia with 20 billion euros ($27 billion) of investments there, while the jobs of 350,000 German workers depend on Russian trade.

Italy is among the states most strongly resisting tougher restrictions on Russia, along with Greece and Cyprus. Italian exports to Russia were second only to Germany's last year at nearly 11 billion euros ($14.8 billion), double those of Britain and larger than the 8 billion euros ($10.8 billion) of the Netherlands, which has shifted to the pro-sanctions camp after 193 of its citizens were killed in the plane disaster. Much of the Italian sales were manufactured goods, transport machinery and chemicals — the kind of sophisticated products Russia's raw materials-dominated economy needs. The Netherlands, a nation of 15 million, has an outsized share of imports from Moscow and foreign direct investment flows to Russia because of its position as an oil and commodities trading hub and a tax-efficient base for offshore corporations. Italy's allies include southern European countries such as Cyprus, which stands to lose from sanctions because of the billions of euros Russian oligarchs have invested there. Of $94 billion in outward foreign direct investment by Russian residents in 2013, $11 billion ended up in Cyprus. Cyprus, where light regulation and cultural ties through Orthodox Christianity have long attracted the capital and savings of Russians, was only second to the British Virgin Islands, which took in $61.7 billion last year. Wealthy Russians took a hit when the euro zone imposed losses on big bank depositors in return for a 10 billion euro ($13.5 billion) bailout of Cyprus last year after a banking meltdown.

Like wars, the long arm of the US sanctions regime reaches well outside US borders, so, the Financial Times writes, the financial institutions in the capital and elsewhere cannot afford to be cavalier. Financial institutions are making sure the lists are fully up to date and applied properly throughout their systems to deny services to a sanction-hit Russians. Meanwhile, London City financial institutions are in damage control mode, assessing existing deals with Russia and reviewing client lists to avoid being hit by sanctions, with particular attention to those imposed last week by the USA. The Daily Telegraph reported that the threats seem to be having an effect, as Russian oligarchs have started moving their money out of London to keep it safe.  The measures taken with regard to individuals and entities have got a correlation with some of the financial flows across Europe, including in London.
Europe does not want to lose gas and all economic advantages.


Convergence

Every regime gets its public opinion molded and shaped in the media to effect the desired foreign policy course to be accepted by the people. Today all parties are essentially hostages to the public opinion that they helped to agitate in the first place, which makes it difficult to reach a win-win solution. All sides have to present the situation as their victory, while the only way to end the crisis is to reach a compromise. A major responsibility for this whole crisis lies with the hawkish rhetoric from all sides. The way what is happening is described in Washington, Kiev and Moscow resembles a wartime discourse, which completely blocks any compromise

While, as usual, USA is eager to keep Europe under its control, European economic interests in Russia are being used by Washington to its own advantage. As such, USA does not object to Europe’s decision to maintain economic ties with Moscow that are very huge. Russia and Europe's bilateral trade was worth more than $400 billion in 2012. More sanctions increase the price all of Europeans have to pay for this conflict.  Germany and Italy have most to lose if the European Union makes good on its threat to impose harsher sanctions on Moscow, while Britain's overseas territories are soaking up the lion's share of capital streaming out of Russia.


Europe depends heavily on Russia for gas and petroleum products.  About a third of the gas consumed by Europe is supplied by Russia and is largely delivered via Ukrainian territory. Wary of antagonizing its main gas supplier Russia, the EU has used only small travel bans and asset freezes so far in reaction to Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Ukraine. An EU plan to consider limiting Russian access to European defense and energy technology more difficult with the impact of restricting trade with Russia would be far from even, despite pressure from the United States after the downing of a Malaysian airliner over the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine. EU said that those measures may be widened if Moscow does not cooperate with an investigation into the plane crash and fails to stop weapons flowing into the country.

While East Europe is conciliatory towards Moscow, the Baltic countries, which won their independence from the Soviet Union two decades ago and now supporting USA, however, are the most vocal about the need for sanctions against Russia despite strong trade ties. Almost three-quarters of Latvia's drinks and tobacco exports go to Russia, while Lithuania sells a third of its food and live animals there. But the Baltics are eager to diversify away from Moscow. Lithuania badly wants to join its Baltic neighbors Latvia and Estonia in the euro zone, cementing a shift westwards. Interestingly, they see the Kremlin also promoting the US interests globally.


Conflict


Sanctions are always a problem both for those who are subjected to them and those who impose them. If large scale sanctions are imposed against Russia, its economy could dip into a recession, while if Russia sends troops into Ukraine, it could lose up to 20 percent of its GDP in several years.

Internal divisions in the EU failed to produce the consensus needed to support the tough talk of sanctions initiated by Washington immediately following the crash.  EU governments are split over tougher sanctions, largely depending on the closeness of their ties with Russia.

America has seen how difficult it is for it to get Europe now to contain Russia when its economy is linked with those of European states. While the US attempted to consolidate all major Western powers in an attempt to isolate Russia, all the individual states have their own economic and political interests at stake that they were ultimately unwilling to sacrifice for the common goal.

The threat of the West slapping tougher sanctions on Russia after the devastating Malaysia Airlines crash in eastern Ukraine has given London-based Russian oligarchs and firms the jitters, with both groups taking steps to avoid being caught out by further punitive measures.  

Since the plane crash, President Vladimir Putin has come under pressure both internationally and domestically, forcing him to search for the least damaging solution to the intensified confrontation with the West without abandoning Russia's interests in Ukraine. When the Kremlin annexed Crimea many conservative thinkers inside Russia and abroad have declared that Vladimir Putin has vouched for a more interventionist policy. Putin's solution to the need to cooperate with the West economically and keep a stake in Ukrainian politics has been to adopt a conciliatory stance and wait for emotions to subside.

EU foreign ministers agreed to widen the list of individuals and entities targeted by asset freezes and visa bans, and also raised the possibility of restricting Russian access to European capital markets, defense and energy technologies. Cameron said he wanted broader sanctions to target "the cronies and oligarchs" around President Vladimir Putin and was ready to consider sanctions that would damage its own interests, including in the financial sector.

The British cross-party Commons Committee on Arms Export Controls accused the British government of failing to halt arms exports to Russia, saying that export licenses worth $225 million still remain in force. The revelation prompted accusations of hypocrisy directed at British Prime Minister David Cameron.  Cameron had earlier urged the French government to scrap a deal to sell two Mistral-class helicopter carriers to Russia. The head of France's ruling Socialist party, Jean-Christophe Cambadelis, said that Cameron must "start by cleaning up his own backyard," referring to the number of Russian oligarchs in Britain and the strength of financial ties between Moscow and London.

Russia and the West are locked in mutual cooperation in many issues, like resolving Iran's nuclear program. The US largely depends on Russia for moving troops and military equipment away from Afghanistan through NATO's northern distribution network and transportation hub in the Russian city of Ulyanovsk, and also for maintaining security in Central Asia. In addition, Russia's participation is essential in international efforts to resolve the ongoing war in Syria and the most recent wave of violence in Iraq.

The fact that USA could advance its energy cum route agenda fairly easily with timely help from Moscow following the Sept-11 hoax is a proof that USA cannot afford to antagonize Russia beyond certain point.  Without Russian help thousands of American soldiers would have perished in Afghanistan and elsewhere. .

Notwithstanding their cold rhetoric on Ukraine and Malaysian plane crash issues, the governments of Russia and the USA appear to be adopting a more conciliatory rhetoric toward each other, demonstrating the constraints that drive their foreign policies.

The anti-Russian rhetoric is only a cover directed at the internal public in USA and EU countries. At the core there are tangible interests that ultimately drive foreign policy.  The west is certain they need to see how they will cooperate with Russia in any new situation

Putin has adopted a course of de-escalation now, but he is also a hostage of the propaganda policy of the past year.

Maybe USA and Russia have managed to take a step back now and ease tensions, but, however, it does not mean that the crisis is over. Crippling the Russian power to make it an ordinary, rather weak country like Pakistan or Afghanistan remains one of the goals of US imperialism and most Americans want Russia to take orders from Washington high command.  


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