I - NATO Meet 2009

There has been much ado about the recent 2009 February Munich Security conference in southern Germany being the turning point in US foreign policy, as spelt out by US Vice president Joe Biden, especially US-Russian relations. The Munich conference included power brokers from around the "big world" focusing on hot-button security issues for the 21st century by ensuring the Kremlin support as well.

 
Focus of NATO has been US-led terror wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and further invasion moves for which USA seeks Russian support. Afghan war was not going well and focus on these countries was hampering American ability to de-escalate crises elsewhere. US President Barack Obama has pledged to make Afghanistan his top foreign policy priority and will be unlikely to give Karzai an easy ride, having accused him in the past of failing to get "out of the bunker" and rule effectively. It is strange that instead of taking these views seriously and reviewing the flawed policy towards terrorism, President Obama is lending ears to trigger happy circles in his administration that also consists of old guards of Bush. This is evident from his recent remarks that release of Guantanamo Bay prisoners would compromise the security of the USA as these "˜criminals' could resume attacks against US targets. This is a usual mischievous threat perception floated by the Neocons to invade Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran and many others, while the actual agenda is to control the resources there.

As a military organization and focused on terror wars, NATO, during a defense ministers meeting last fall in Hungary, authorized troops in Afghanistan to launch the drug attacks. Afghanistan was committed to its ties with NATO and the USA, which have nearly 70,000 troops fighting Taleban-led insurgents in the country. NATO has tried all methods including terrorist, to cripple the Taliban movement and the so-called Al-Qaeda, but miserably failed. Now they say that money from Afghanistan's booming illicit drug trade has been blamed by the Pentagon-CIA for pumping up to $100 million a year into the coffers of resurgent Taliban fighters. Frustrated with some of his Western allies, in particular the USA, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, once the darling of the West, has begun to reach out to Afghanistan's giant northern neighbor Russia. Karzai has repeatedly hit back at Western criticism of his government, endemic official corruption and lack of rule of law, with stinging attacks on the US and NATO record of accidentally killing hundreds of civilians in air strikes.

 The recent NATO Feb conference in Munich on security was intended primarily to secure money and troops for US-led terror wars in Islamic world and to make Russia see reason to support them in similar fashion perhaps without the world knowing its cooperation. President Barack Obama did not attend the meet, but sent big guns associated with Afghan terror to Munich: Vice President Biden, Obama's national security advisor James Jones, special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke, and General David Petraeus, US commander in Afghanistan and Iraq. Jones and Petraeus joined panel discussions on Afghanistan, where Obama (Pentagon) is sending 30,000 extra troops including several brigades in the coming months, while calling upon allies do more to snuff out a Taliban insurgency. Craddock who heads the U.S. European Command said he still needs about 5,000 NATO troops to bolster Afghan forces during the coming elections, and he is confident he will get them from other NATO nations and also said that the U.S. and its allies are making progress in their efforts to fill the need for more troops, equipment and intelligence gathering in Afghanistan.

 USA seeks to make Russia one of its junior partners, at par with other European and Asian powers, but Moscow resists that. Therefore, there have been ups and downs in US-Russia relations and the "Cold war" between them remains a symbol of never-ending fights between these adversaries. Obama is realistic, but Medvedev does not seem to be too optimistic either. Biden met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov in what would be the highest-level meeting between US and Russia since Obama's inauguration last month.

It has been the sheer habit of USA to make false allegations against those it opposes. By continuing with the Bushdom era policies of carrot and stick, Joe Biden said the US was "reviewing policy toward Iran" - and made clear the new administration was willing to engage in dialogue with Tehran.  Biden said the Iranian people are a great people and the Persian civilization is a great civilization, but Iran has acted in ways that are not conducive to peace in the region or to the prosperity of its people; its illicit nuclear program is but one of those manifestations USA will be willing to talk to Iran, and it offers a very clear choice: continue down the current course and there will be continued pressure and isolation; abandon the illicit nuclear program and support for terrorism and there will be meaningful incentives." In other words, Obama admn has not changed the Bush Mideast policy even a bit. This is Bushdom's usual ultimatum.

II- Russia and USA: Confrontational Cooperation?

At Munich NATO, Joe Biden set out Obama's foreign policy vision especially with the Kremlin, saying Washington wants to turn over a new leaf with Moscow and "talk" to Iran to give up nukes efforts. Crucially, the vice president said the USA would press ahead with its missile defense shield project, but only "provided the technology is proven to work and cost effective." "We will do so in consultation with you, our NATO allies, and with Russia," he said. "It is time to press the reset button and to revisit the many areas where we can and should work together," Biden said. Biden also indicated that the team of new US President might review a project to deploy missile defence facilities in Eastern Europe which has provoked angry reactions from Moscow. Biden also signaled that the Obama team was ready to consider Russian demands in negotiations to renew START, a key Cold War-era nuclear disarmament treaty set to expire in December.

The US has proposed installing 10 missile interceptors and radar technology in Poland and the Czech Republic. The plan, apart form the recent Georgian standoff,  has angered Russia, which sees the system as a threat to its security. America will press ahead with its plans for a missile defense shield - but only in consultation with Russia, Joe Biden has said. The Kremlin would be picking across Biden's words and find them encouraging. "He has also said (Russian) missiles will be withdrawn - if (the American) missile defense is abandoned."We are seeing their coming together of these powers at a time when the relationship between the United States and Russia has been perhaps the lowest ebb since the dissolution of the Soviet Union." Russian Deputy Premier Ivanov, speaking in Munich, indicated that Moscow was prepared to discuss missile threats with Washington. Biden said the question is "how we are going to react to the hypothetical threat of the spread of missile technologies" and suggested, among other things, a joint threat assessment (by) Russia and the U.S. " But, asked whether Russia would take concrete steps to signal its readiness to work with the USA, Ivanov replied: "It is an oriental bazaar and we do not trade the way people do in a bazaar." Clearly, USA wants Russia to play second fiddle to Washington playing its "goals" around the world.

Russia-US relations have been frayed by issues such as Washington's plans to deploy elements of a missile shield to Central Europe, Russia's five-day war with Georgia over South Ossetia last August, and NATO's eastward expansion. As back as January 16, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev expressed hope that Washington will develop constructive relations with Moscow after president-elect Barack Obama's inauguration Jan 20. The Russian president said that there were grounds for optimism judging by recent statements made by "the president-elect and by people who will be in his administration".

The US-led West always finds fault with Russia, its system of functioning, especially.. The West had earlier praised new Russia for its overall achievements, but now grown critical of what it sees as growing authoritarianism and human rights violations under Vladimir Putin, its all-powerful president now turned prime minister. Obama has through his deputy Biden signaled his team is ready to consider Russian demands in negotiations -- stalled under Bush -- to renew START, the Cold War-era nuclear disarmament treaty that expires in December. Notwithstanding its confrontational cooperation to it, Russia does not believe NATO as well as USA will even have a change of mind in their global agenda. Russian diplomacy, however, is a different matter.

However, on Feb 07 Russia welcomed an offer by the USA "to press the reset button" on relations with Moscow and suggested the two sides could jointly review the contentious issue of missile defense. Moscow appreciated Biden's statement that it was time to "reset" relations and end a dangerous drift in ties between Russia and NATO. Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov claimed that the new U.S. administration has a very strong desire to change and that inspires optimism" and "very positive" Moscow strongly opposed plans by former President George W. Bush's plans to deploy parts of a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, to defend against perceived threats from countries hostile to Washington, chiefly Iran, considered by nuclear Israel as a threat. Ivanov also reaffirmed that if Washington scrapped the proposed missile shield, Russia would not proceed with the threatened deployment of nuclear missiles near the Polish border. Russia's NATO envoy Dmitry Rogozin cautiously welcomed the missile defence comments in Biden's speech that "contained many hints and associations from which one can conclude that it is possible to expect some new accents in US foreign policy on the irritants in Russian-US relations, including missile defence." Rogozin sees "an "important move forward" from the unilateralism of the Bush era.

Russia-NATO relations have been deeply strained in recent months due to a range of issues including missile defence and last summer's war in Georgia. Former US president George W. Bush strongly backed the initiative to place to place a radar base in the Czech Republic and interceptor missiles in Poland. Washington bluffs saying the project is meant to protect against attacks by "rogue states" like Iran. Moscow however views the US project as a threat to its security and has repeatedly lashed out against it. Speculation has been rife that the Obama administration would order a review of the missile defence project to examine whether it works and is worth the multi-billion dollar price tag. Crucially, Biden said the USA would press ahead with the missile defence shield project, but only "provided the technology is proven to work and cost effective." "We will do so in consultation with you, our NATO allies, and with Russia," he said. "It is time to press the reset button and to revisit the many areas where we can and should work together." Biden also signaled that the Obama team is ready to consider Russian demands in negotiations -- stalled under Bush -- to renew START, the Cold War-era nuclear disarmament treaty that expires in December. 

It seemed USA would like resume bilateral talks on security with Russia, but USA tries all tricks to evade any constructive talks on NATO, WTO, WMD and disarmament. In 2003 USA unilaterally walked out of the ABM dialogue, ignoring the warnings form Moscow. The START accord calls for reducing the number of US nuclear warheads from 10,000 to 8,500 and Russia's arsenal from 10,200 to 6,450. Signed in 1991, it led to massive reductions in the two countries' nuclear arsenals. Talks on renewing START had stalled under the Bush administration, in part due to its resistance to Russian demands that a successor agreement be legally binding with strict verification procedures. Biden also criticized what he called a "dangerous drift" in ties between Russia and NATO, "The United States rejects the notion that NATO's gain is Russia's loss, or that Russia's strength is NATO's weakness," he said. "We can and should cooperate... to renew the verification procedures in the START treaty and then go beyond existing treaties to negotiate deeper cuts in both our arsenals," Biden said.

Under Obama's predecessor George W. Bush, relations between the White House and the Kremlin hit lows unseen since the Cold War. Moscow was angered by Washington's intention to base radars and interceptor rockets in Czech Republic and Poland, which Bush said would detect and shoot down incoming missiles from "rogue states" such as Iran. Russia strongly objected to having such installations so close to its borders and feared that it was slowly being encircled by the West -- a fear stoked by the prospect of Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO. Russia's short war in August with Georgia, and its subsequent recognition of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, also rankled Washington.

Bush Jr., the man responsible for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is no more in power. But reports appearing in the international media clearly suggest that  Barack Obama, who entered the White House with the pledge to bring about a change, has fallen victim to the jaundiced world-view of the neo-cons, who reigned supreme during Bush era.  A classified Pentagon report urges President Obama to shift US military strategy in Afghanistan by de-emphasizing democracy-building and concentrating more on strikes against Taliban and Al-Qaeda sanctuaries inside Pakistan.

III- Mere Speculations?

World leaders have speculated that good will surrounding the inauguration of President Barack Obama would generate greater efforts by NATO allies to send additional resources to Afghanistan. Barack Obama based his election campaign on a great vision for the USA with great vagueness "“ and with great success. The hopes resting on his shoulders are immense. The hopes placed on him were incredibly immense, yet it seems as though he knows exactly how to carry these hopes in the bitter cold air of reality without losing face. Yet even if he cannot fulfill each hope, America will forgive him. Disappointment is a threat from the other side. Nobody, in the pathos nation of America, will take offence to the fact that this president that is not a miracle healer. The disappointment is much more likely to occur abroad, especially in Europe, since Barack Obama is, above all, President of the USA, and will represent American interests and beliefs.

One of the major announcements made by President Obama on closure of Guantanamo Bay  in Cuba has given the world an impression about a possible shift in policy course of USA. President Obama is set to close the detention centre at the US naval base in Cuba in a year but, however, not immediately, probably because the terror forces have to finish off the "so-called suspected terrorists by then.  The Vice President Biden said America would ask other countries to take in prisoners from Guantanamo Bay.  Biden avoided the expression "terrorism", in stead he used extremism: "As we seek a lasting framework for our common struggle against extremism, we will have to work cooperatively with nations around the world -- and we will need your help." As an example, Biden said the USA would ask other countries to take in inmates from Guantanamo, Bush's "war on terror" prison in Cuba that Obama vows to close.

Is Russia soft on USA? Or,  can ever US-Russia relations be reset?, for, there will be no permanent thaw in relations because both have no political capital to undo the Bush's controversial US European Defense Missile plan and Washington is unwilling to withdraw its support for Georgia. Bush has allowed Moscow lot of maneuvering space. USA condoned Moscow's support for Iran and its legitimate civilian nuclear issue; Moscow's engineered closure of US airbase in Kyrgyzstan to control/share war booty in Asia; Moscow's offer to Washington to use Russia as alternate route to NATO supplies in Afghanistan. Russia supports USA aimed at killing two birds with one stone: avenge its defeat in Afghanistan and teach Islamabad a lesson. For both, any government or leader who will stand with opponent's leadership will be taken as enemy, which will be a blow to democracy and rule of law. US-Russia relationship will not flourish beyond limited NATO-Afghan cooperation and the price will be more bloodshed in the region. In terms of Iran, Washington's failure to control and contain effectively Israel could influence future of Iran's nuclear weapons program to match Israel's arsenals.

Meeting in Munich was the highest-level Russian-US meeting since President Barack Obama succeeded George W. Bush -- under whom ties between Washington and Moscow hit lows unseen since the Cold War -- on January 20.  Russia says the Obama administration has hinted Washington is ready for a fresh start in strained relations with Moscow. US Vice President Joe Biden met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov after promising a "new tone" in US foreign policy and a new era in relations with Moscow. Russia welcomed signals from Washington that it wants a fresh start in relations with Moscow, a day after Vice President Joe Biden heralded a "new tone" in US foreign policy. Russia's NATO envoy Dmitry Rogozin said Biden's speech "contained many hints and associations from which one can conclude that it is possible to expect some new accents in US foreign policy on the irritants in Russian-US relations, including missile defense." It is possible to expect some new accents in US foreign policy on the irritants in Russian-US relations, including missile defence, if Obama views the global issues constructively.  

Barack Obama's pick for secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, said she planned to work very closely with Russia on key economic, security, non-proliferation, and arms control issues. Obama said "We want to cooperate with them where we can, and there are a whole host of areas particularly around non-proliferation of weapons and terrorism where we can cooperate, but we also have to send a clear message that they have to act in ways that are not bullying their neighbors".

Finally the issue comes to one of fighting Islamic nations. Needless to say, like Bush, authorization of drone attacks in Pakistan mean that Obama is also committing war crimes. If Obama administration cannot end use of force resulting in innocent deaths and help secure peace without further bloodshed in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Kashmir then for average person in these parts of the world America is part of the problem.

Post-Script

In trying to understand US policy in Russia, an attempt has also been made to comprehend the shades of US policy focus globally. USA believes there two equal nations in all respects and none can match it now or never and America would remain the most powerful military power, the strongest economic and financial power and any one trying to shift the "balance of power" in its favour would dealt with severely and crippled in unimaginable ways even by using all powers. USA could employ all possible ploys to achieve that objective as it is witnessed around the world, especially in Mideast and Afghanistan.  All powerful USSR was crippled to play music in Afghanistan to NATO tunes; Saddam Hussein was murdered and Mahmoud of Iran is also being threatened, all these not because of being anti-American, but refusal to fall in line. Every nation should, therefore, is expected to help the USA advance its global interests. India is one example how USA is being helped. Islam seeking to provide equality is being threatened by the USA for the same or similar reason.

President Obama cannot be drastically different from his predecessors. Obviously, the Neo-cons who misguided the Bush regime all through also encircle now President Barack Obama administration too. Unless President Obama reject the status-quo, nature of US policies would remain so for ever. The White House chief, however, has not been all that optimistic about emerging US-Russia relations as there have always been troubles in their ties.

It appears, US regime, just as its predecessors, is fixed for ever and Obama is in no position to challenge Pentagon over national security issues. In America itself, rulers have no respect for law of the country and international law. Obama might go for compromises where he should not. Senate Republicans sought assurances from Obama administration that justice department will not prosecute former government officials over torture and constitutional abuses (freedom of speech, warrantless wiretapping, corporate corruption) in return for support for the confirmation of concerned officials. If Obama-Biden team duo cannot uphold national law how they can expect the rest of world to believe that they will respect international law.

Obama has approved dispatch of three more brigades of the US army to Afghanistan despite growing realization that Afghan problem has no military solution. Afghanistan would be disastrous for US-Russia relations in the years to come. Afghan President Hamid Karzai, a puppet leader of the US-led West-cum-Russia, used the Munich conference to call for reconciliation with the Taliban, and urged foreign forces in his country to do more to halt civilian casualties and invited "all those Taliban who are not part of Al-Qaeda, who are not part of "terrorist" networks ... to participate, to come back to their country". Karzai knows Afghans belong to Afghanistan and the foreign "democratic" forces unleashing terror to subdue and silence them will end up disastrously too. History of Afghanistan substantiates the fact that valiant Afghans cannot be over-powered through coercion or aggression and Obama too is bound to learn the same lesson but after humiliation as in Vietnam and Iraq. Any further military build up in Afghanistan is meaningless because even after 7 years of terror wars Afghans remain intact and will win.  Military success is simply not possible, for numerous logistical, historical and practical reasons. But failure will also come at a price, at least for those who will directly benefit from subduing the rebellious nation.

On his part, Barack Obama said last month that he wanted to "reset" relations between Washington and an "increasingly assertive" Moscow. Ties between Russia and the USA have grown increasingly strained in recent years. Russia's brief war with Georgia last year and its recognition of the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia were sharply condemned by the USA. The West had earlier praised new Russia for its overall achievements, but now grown critical of what it sees as growing authoritarianism and human rights violations under Vladimir Putin, its all-powerful president now turned prime minister. Obama has only signaled his team is ready to consider Russian demands in negotiations -- stalled under Bush -- to renew START, the Cold War-era nuclear disarmament treaty that expires in December. Speculation is the best option for us. Against US wishes, Russia sells nuclear equipment to Iran. Moscow is angered by Washington's plans to place put radars and interceptor rockets in Czech Republic and Poland that Bush said would detect and shoot down incoming missiles from "rogue states" such as Iran. Russia strongly objected to having such installations so close to its borders and feared that it was slowly being encircled by the West -- a fear stoked by the prospect of Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO.

Highly enthusiastic Barack Obama has to remain so for long but has to make certain decisions about his own policy courses to do away with those of Bush Jr. First, Obama has to deal with the all powerful Pentagon controlling all military organizations world wide and their secret services. Pentagon is infested with ideas of Neocons for military supremacy and global resources control. Obama could envisage plans for the home front, but on external front, he cannot bypass the dangerous Pentagon and if he does he would invite wrath for his own regime. Obama could defend his economic stimulus plan as "absolutely necessary", and urged Congress to quickly approve it. The Senate was holding a rare Saturday session to debate a pared-down version of the original $900bn (£612bn) plan to revive the flagging US economy.

Obama has to make US media shed hypocrisy and Islamaphobia trends. By projecting the global interests of USA and its terror allies as supreme, the western media help the anti-Islamic forces to slam Islam and torture or kill Muslims. The USA controls the global media, including the Third world's, rather too effectively. The Eastern third world mentality is being shaped largely by western feeds mainly through media. Third world media by and large report faithfully what is placed on western media pages. The media lords even believe that their own people are not competent to write on Western politics, whereas the western guys can write better on third world societies than the specialists in third world. US-led West think only can write about their own countries, their politics and economics and security issues, they can also write about other nations better than what the journalists could do about their own countries. This is in essence the third world small mentality or small mindedness. This proves how much the India and rest of the third world is indebted to Western media and other bosses. What is shocking is that fact that heavily influenced by western views, these "magnets" also dissuade the third world people from writing  about USA and the rest of the western world and ask, in stead to concentrate only about their own problems because they are incapable of making opinions about the US-led west. (I have received letters form editors on Asia restricting me to write only about India and not about USA, Russia or the rest of the "high world".)

 The USA says Iran should fall in line, but that would not just happen because it has the tacit support for the Islamic world, cutting across the divides. USA is annoyed with Moscow extending nuclear help to Tehran and by naming Iran as a rogue state, America still considers Russia a rogue state too. It is on IAEA record that North Korea nuclear program is plutonium based whereas Pakistan has different nuclear program. Iran's nuclear program is being maintained in accordance to IAEA charter. Pakistan cannot be held responsible for Iran's right to protect is security and turn nuclear if next Israeli PM fulfills his promise and attacks Iran as well. Instead of pursuing same old carrot and stick policy with Iran and Arab world, Obama should stand up to support Iran for following NPT protocol and keep Israel from endangering security of the region and fueling nuclear proliferation. Obama administration should instead prepare for its foreign policy test in coming months.

Both Arabs and non-Arabs have to put Obama on probation list before endorsing any of his views and his Vice president Joe Biden seems to have decided to pursue Bushdom.  "I'm a Zionist," Biden proudly proclaimed recently on the presidential campaign trail. That's amazing considering the fact that although 99.99 percent of Jews are Zionists, the great majority of them are afraid to admit even to themselves that they're Zionists, especially these days after the Gaza massacre.

Comprehensively, Washington has to uphold international demands to help UN bring Israeli political and IDF leadership to book for holocaust of innocent lives in Gaza in accordance to international laws and conventions. Similarly, in terms of Pakistan the drones attacks should be stopped forthwith and issues should be solved through diplomacy and dialogue and all Islamic nations should be freed from foreign occupations. The possible new allies were led by Russia, and included neighbors Iran and China who have economic interests in Afghanistan, but also reservations about the presence of foreign troops.

It has beocme a nasty fasion for the  glboal media to talk aobut illicit liqour  and other trafficking in Afghanistan, but the truth is just the opposite; it is the occupying forces that do this business. In Afghanistan USA & NATO put blame on Taliban for the poppy cultivation in Afghanistan for financing their resistance to allied forces. Ironically, it was only in Taliban era when the world had seen a sharp decline in opium crop in Afghanistan. Taliban banned opium cultivation nationwide. A more important question is how and when this business of drug production and trafficking started in region? CIA has been using drug money since long to generate money to support its operations all over the world. It did not start in Afghanistan it was brought here after experimenting somewhere else. This is something which is not a lead story in international media for obvious reasons despite the fact it is harming millions of lives around the globe.  

So long as US-led forces keep killing the Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq and threaten Iran and other with invasions, neither the USA nor US-led nations could have any new policy sets to pursue as normal powers. US failures in Iraq and Afghanistan would be known to the world in due course. That is the essence of US foreign policy and all the talks for peace is only to fool the world and Arabs, who are interested more in petrodollars than Islamic cause.

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Yours Sincerely,

DR. ABDUL RUFF Colachal

Columnist & Independent Researcher in World Affairs, The only Indian to have gone through entire India

South Asia.