Fall of Labour in UK? - By Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

UK's Labour Party has been on a crashing course for more than two years now. Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown now faces the prospect of a new challenge to his leadership as support for his ruling Labour Party has plunged to its lowest level in a century after European elections which added more right-wing parties in EU parliament. It seems the departure of Tony Blaire has not solved the UK ruling Labour’s problems. Premier Gordon Brown's political survival is in the balance after Labour suffered a devastating defeat in the European polls.

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Projections by the EU showed centre-right parties would have the most seats - between 263 and 273 - in the 736-member parliament. Centre-left parties were expected to get between 155 to 165 seats.  The Labour Party managed just 15.4 per cent of the popular vote to Ukip's 17.5 per cent. Labour lost five seats to leave them with just 11, two fewer than Ukip with 13 and 13 behind the Conservative tally of 24. The Tories topped the European elections with 28.6 per cent followed by the UK Independence Party on 17.4 per cent.  The Tories had 28.3 per cent while the Liberal Democrats were in fourth with 14 per cent. The party was beaten into third place by the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the popular vote while the far-right Nazi wing, British National Party (BNP), constantly improving its presence, achieved a major breakthrough by gaining its first European seats.

Labour was beaten almost every where by the Tories in Wales for the first time in history and across much of the South, it was pushed into fourth, fifth and even sixth place. In Edinburgh, Labour was beaten into third place by the SNP and the Tories.  UKIP are the big winners as voters furious with the main parties turned their backs on the political establishment. Party leader Nick Clegg had been aiming to come second with his pro-EU policies, but the party was facing even worse results than in 2004. Conservative leader David Cameron has challenged Brown to call a national election --- something he does not have to do until mid-June next year. "A general election would be a great cleansing process," Cameron told reporters. "It would give the country a fresh start where we so badly need one, with an economy that is in difficulty, with a political system that is in a mess and with a government that is so weak it is just extraordinary." In the worst performance by a governing party in a national election since the Liberals were wiped out in 1918, Labour won just 15.3 per cent of the vote.

Labour's share of the vote was some seven points down from the European election in 2004.  The triumph for the neo-fascist party sent shockwaves through Westminster and increased pressure on Gordon Brown. The far-Right British National Party has won its first ever seats in a national election as Labour crashed to poll humiliation.  The BNP gained the seats in northern England at the expense of Brown's Labour Party, which had been hit hard by a scandal over politicians abusing their expenses. Health Secretary Andy Burnham admitted it was ‘deeply uncomfortable’ to see the BNP polling such large numbers. “Britain is sending Nazis to Europe to represent us.”  The Liberal Democrats took a disastrous fourth place.  UK Independence Party on 17.4 percent and more than 13 points behind the Conservatives, who got 28.6 percent.

Despite victories in the North West and Yorkshire, the BNP had a lower share of the vote than the Greens, with 6.6 per cent to their 8.8 per centCentre-right parties have done well in elections to the European Parliament at the expense of the left. The BNP, a Nazi Party, is like the ultimate protest vote without a proper debate about the European question and is expected to grow very rapidly. This is the major worry of the ruling dispensation.

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Labour collapse is evident now. Brown has just ignored the opposition gimmicks. Brown's departure would almost certainly precipitate an early election which the center-right opposition Conservatives are expected to win after 12 years out of power. The turmoil rattled markets last week, pushing the pound lower. Investors are wary of uncertainty when Britain faces its deepest recession since World War Two and the budget deficit has reached a record 175 billion pounds ($281 billion).

The results set the scene for a tense meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party, where the Prime Minister addressed his shell-shocked backbenchers later. The defeat could be the catalyst for rebel Labour backbenchers plotting to oust  Gordon Brown to come out into the open and launch a direct leadership challenge. There will be particular dismay that the party has fallen so far that it opened the door for the BNP to take seats in Yorkshire and the Humber . The only glimmer of hope for Labour is that the Tories struggled to make significant improvement on the 26 per cent they scored last time – a worrying sign for David Cameron.

The Tories have an advantage of 38 per cent to 22 per cent with Brown as leader, indicating they would romp home with a majority of 74. Some prospective candidates have called on Brown to stand down, saying he was not the leader to win the next General Election. "We need a leader who can win for Labour at the next general election and not take us to a humiliating defeat. Research by ComRes for the Independent suggested a leadership change would improve Labour's prospects. Accordingly, if Johnson took the Labour helm, it predicted the party's support would rise to 26 per cent and backing for David Cameron drop to 36 per cent - leaving the Tories six short of an overall majority. The poll has said Home Secretary Alan Johnson as PM could deny the Tories an overall majority at the next election if he replaced Brown. The poll suggests Labour's fortunes would also improve if Brown was replaced by Justice Secretary Jack Straw, Foreign Secretary David Miliband, Schools Secretary Ed Balls, or backbencher Jon Cruddas. In simple language all this means the Labour leaders trying laboriously to replace Brown.

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None talks about a regime change in UK. Brown’s allies believe the threat of an immediate General Election after a leadership change – which would cost many Labour MPs their seats – will save him. The Labour disaster fuels the alarm of MPs who want to see Brown resign. Rebels said it would be the trigger for a concerted attempt to force a leadership contest.  The Prime Minister was battered by the resignation of a string of ministersfaces a showdown with his MPs at the Parliamentary Labour Party. Ringing in their ears will be the words of Tony Blair’s close friend Lord Falconer, a former Lord Chancellor to join demands for the Premier to step down. The UK results came as conservative parties raced toward victory across Europe as voters punishing left-leaning parties.

The Premier rallied Labour activists at a hastily-arranged meeting in East London, joking that although his wife Sarah was not present ‘she hasn’t resigned’. During a make-or-break meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party on 08 June, Brown said he wants to use all the "talents" in the party and act in a "more collective way", insisting: "You solve the problem not by walking away but by facing it and doing something about it. I'm not making a plea for unity. I am making an argument for unity. And he said there was "no huge ideological difference" within Labour, adding: "There is not a resignation letter I have seen that mentions differences over policy." Defence minister Quentin Davies said the contributions had been "overwhelmingly positive", adding: "We want to keep the captain on the bridge and I'm sure he will stay on the bridge, and the ship will reach the right destination."

Brown does not think a new leader would really matter for the next poll. When he replace T9ny Blair similar opinions were aired, but the trouble did not subside, on the contrary the party problems continued as it lost a poll. He insisted that the public would not forgive the Government if it turned in on itself at a time when it should be tackling the recession and cleaning up Parliament. Brown said. ‘We have a purpose, we have a mission, and we have a task ahead.’ Crucially for the Prime Minister, new Home Secretary Alan Johnson – tipped as Brown’s successor – warned rebels against mounting a coup. ‘I don’t agree that regicide gives you a united party – quite the opposite,’ he said. Britain can and should lead in Europe, making our country more prosperous, championing a brighter, safer future both at home and abroad. 'We are stronger together and poorer apart.'

An Observation

It seems the ruling Labour party in UK is all set to lose power in the next elections going by the electoral debacles in the past months, including the one for EU parliament. However, there is not clear guarantee that any other leader would lead the Labour Party to victory in the next poll. Gordon Brown knows the real price that will be paid for a Labour defeat. The party has backed the Lisbon Treaty - the successor to the controversial European constitution - but has proposed a referendum on Britain's continued EU membership in a bid to highlight what it sees as the advantages of membership.

Former finance minister Brown has not faced the electorate since he took over as prime minister from Tony Blair in 2007. Former Labour minister Charles Falconer called for a change at the top to improve Labour's chances in the general election and rebels among Labour members of parliament (MPs) are said to be canvassing support for a plot against Brown. Labour seems to lack a coherent policy agenda and that Brown is indecisive, a poor communicator and appears unable to transfer his confidence on the world economic stage to domestic politics. Brown would delay the planned privatization of Royal Mail and announce an Iraq war inquiry within days. A delay on Royal Mail would help curb Labour divisions after 140 MPs signed a motion opposing the deal.

People want the Labour Party to become a people's party again. ‘Only then regain the voters' trust. Many party workers feel Brown is the best of the bunch and the way they are all giving him a kicking is disgusting. They were found out and now they are now all focusing on the man that allowed transparency. Many ministers are focused strictly on their own best interests - to keep Brown in office for as long as possible - with absolutely no regard to the well-being of Britain.

Both opinion polls and occasional real polls show the Labour in bad colors and a change in leadership would not make any real difference in the misfortunes of the party, but it can only make another leader enjoy the 10 Downing Street benefits till the next poll. Does it mean the process of exit of New Labour era from corridors of power has already begun and the process would lead to the logical end? Not exactly, says a confident Brown. Has he then reserved any special strategy to win back the voters to Labour side?

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Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

Independent Researcher in World Affairs, The only Indian to have gone through entire India, a fraud and terror nation,
South Asia.