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User Name: chaudry
Full Name: khalid waheed
User since: 30/May/2009
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AhlulBayt News Agency
Analysis: Rising tensions; possible Pakistan-India war viewpoint

The Indian analysts and experts believe that once a war sparks between India and Pakistan, New Delhi and Islamabad cannot fight more than 18 days. Ajai Sanhi, the Executive Director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi has commented on the flaring tensions between India and Pakistan, saying that the Indian leaders are well aware that they cannot engage in a battle with Pakistan that lasts more than 15 days. At the same time, it is not possible for Pakistan to manage a direct war with India for a long time.

Meanwhile, some hard-line Hindu leaders and army commanders have asked the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take heavy-handed measures against Pakistan including intruding the Pakistani territory and launching military operations against the Pakistani extremist groups. However, many experts have argued that New Delhi is not qualified for this kind of measures.

According to the AFP, the Indian leaders are now examining five war plans to fight Pakistan. Ajit Dobby, a military and defense analyst at The Week magazine has written an article about the recent tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi. He wrote that India has stationed infiltrating forces in Pakistan, particularly in Kashmir region, and at the present time it can inflict damages on Pakistan using them. According to Dobby, India will try to isolate Pakistan internationally. To this end, it is following some plans, the analyst said. The present time is the best time for India to realize this goal. Meanwhile, the media in India have called on their government to recall the Indian ambassador to Pakistan.

For long years India secretly has been offering support for the separatist movements in Pakistan’s Balochistan province in a bid to spread instability across the area and so prepare the ground for sectarian and ethnic clashes there. But, to surprise of all, the Indian prime minister a couple of weeks ago in his speech has openly announced backing of the separatists of Balochistan. The analysts maintained that New Delhi will use Balochistan opposition movements to put strains on Islamabad in the region and across the world. Dobby said that India will use all of its power and instruments for the purpose.

New Delhi is going to great lengths to impose diplomatic sanctions on Pakistan, similar to those imposed on Iran by the West. But this will not be effective, according the analysts, because neither the Indian trade volume with Pakistan is so big that such measures damage the Pakistani economy nor other countries are ready to impose such sanctions on Islamabad. The New Indian Express daily said that if India seeks putting economic pressure on Pakistan and imposing sanctions, they will be ineffective.

Meanwhile, another Indian expert has presented an account of facts about India and Pakistan and maintained that the Pakistani defense systems are more active and advanced than those of India. He said that India should never consider the choice of war with Pakistan.

Ajit Dobby added that in the upcoming days the ceasefire accord will be breached on the two sides of the India-Pakistan border. Though short-lasing, the clashes will take place at the end of the road, according to him.

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