Mumbai attacks, a wakeup call for both arch rivals

Written By: Amjad Malik

Recent 26 November Mumbai shoot out which is decaled by some as India's 9/11 though is condemnable, but this symbolic attack on western outlets of Taj and Oberoi has a double edged consequences. On one hand it unfolds the destruction in the commercial hub of India and on the other an opportunity where India, Pakistan and USA attempting to use this event for their own strategic advantages ignoring the basic fact that the catastrophe has far reaching repercussions for the peace initiative in the region. Indian security failure is floating on the surface and historic rivalry has forced India to deny any lapse and refuse intelligence share and it leveled allegations forthwith on Pakistani home grown LeT which was an easiest target, if one is familiar with Indo Pak relations. India at all times will have a few people set to rock and roll due to LeT's past presence in Kashmir on the name of "˜struggle for independence.' Though its pre mature to establish the true perpetrators behind in the absence of joint or UN mission investigation but it's an eye opener how fragile is the security of India which claims to be the biggest economic cum military power in the region, but has been meagerly kneeled down by around 10 outlawed individuals in few hours which raise eye brows on country's safety procedures on its nuclear command and control. Their concentration must be to stop any future Mumbai style attacks and the key is to counter the far right activities of RSS and VHP, and move forward towards true emancipation of its people by addressing Muslim & Christian minority treatment concerns and a viable solution to the bone of contention "˜Kashmir'.  Unless the situation is improved where Washington plays a role to pave way for an Indo-Pak peace deal where EU, China, Russia are on board to add economic incentives and geographical advantages, these rivalries will continue. These attacks whether it's at Marriott Islamabad or Taj at Mumbai will continue as both countries since its inauguration in 1947 have locked horns in intelligence warfare and RAW and ISI both are fighting this war to its own strategic advantages.  

Looking at the situation in the region it's the safety & security and supply to US soldiers in Afghanistan which seems paramount and takes precedence in this whole fiasco which to me, has stopped this war and further escalation. Indian military advisors are concentrating on giving options to its leadership of attacks on training camps of LeT or MDI at Murreedke and Muzaffarabad, concentrating large scale troops on the eastern border, air strikes inside military installation of Pakistan or naval blockade of Karachi port which all are countering complications. They intend to manipulate the hot pursuit opportunity, the venue which is opened by the precedents of US drone attacks on western borders of Pakistan, it requires bravery and political will. Whereas Pakistan is ready for it as they can digest friendly fire of its ally, but cannot ignore a single missile of its arch rival India which will spark frenzy in its public if it ignored. Its intelligentsia has more or less unanimously withdrawn unilateral non nuclear combat statement of President Zardari too which has a military backing, so they are ready to rock and roll with all its potential to defend its soil.

India so far is surviving with the diplomatic process and complaints to USA, in the absence of any concrete intelligence sharing mechanism, its unwillingness to involve UNO, far reaching complications if they go to war and USA's strategic disadvantages if Pakistan pulls out from Western border, but small scale skirmishes cannot be ruled out. Pakistan though is resilient to pull out around 100,000 troops from western border risking the onslaught on supply lines which has far reaching consequences the way war of terror will be fought in future in the region, thus it is acting as a deterrent to avoid conflict too. This will also bring parties to table to redraw country's contribution towards its future role addressing its concerns. Though US may shift some of its supplies and logistical dependency to central Asia but it will be far expansive and will require old rival Russia's support which requires time to activate and Russia can manipulate to its advantage too in the time of need.

It also supports the philosophy that Pakistan can only be governed and run by Pakistanis only as any attempt by outsiders will not only unite this crowd of 160 million into a nation but will lead to a general revolt against any civil Govt who is in support of the Westerners. It will increase radicalization at 180 degrees and will raise global Muslim support against it. Unfortunately, any invasion will cause to increase the terrorism by non state actors and jihadi organizations that are under no control. With more than 160 million people, Pakistan which has four times the population of Afghanistan or Iraq, twice of Iran, two thirds the population of the entire Arab Middle East and above all nuclearly armed one of the powerful armies in the world needs little tip on the shoulder for their contribution in the war on terror. Pakistan faced more deadly suicidal attacks than any country since 9/11 in any one calendar year around 100 in 2007 alone. It lost over 1200 soldiers in a war which was brought to its soil by the foreigners. Its people are restless at western borders where India milked the situation by 500% increase in its consulate presence in Afghanistan and left no opportunity to weaken Pak control in FATA and still India is crying wolf.

In the Western region of Pakistan, the history tells that without the support of local people and the Pakistan's military no war can be won. India either must understand the tenacity of the situation and come clean with a viable solution to Kashmir and improve its human rights record on minorities where in 2002 alone around 5000 people died in Gujarat and international silence amounts to criminal negligence and their groups like RSS and VHP continue to raising funds even from Britain in order to erect "˜Ram Mandar' in place of Babari Mosque in Ajodhya. With this mind set where India remains in a denial mode to accept the sovereignty and security of Pakistan as a viable neighbour in order to avoid headlines on their own internal instability due to separatist movements in India, and a 61 years old home grown Kashmiri insurgency for a right of "˜self determination'  in full swing begs the question whether war is the ultimate solution to put this matter to rest or peace could pave way for these old rivals to live like normal neighbors who solve their issues through a powerful dialogue.

Of course this region is fertile enough to have similar incident here and there like Marriott and Taj/Oberoi and outside interference is so ripe that any attack, at any particular time can spark media frenzy to bring them both from the table talk to the brink of war but it's their own leadership's wisdom which can foster bilateral peace initiatives and resolution to their bilateral issues such as Kashmir and emancipation of minorities who are slaughtered at the hands of religious fanaticism which hinder progress of both countries and its people. Time has come that India stops running its elections on war issue with Pakistan and run it on poverty, peace, Kashmir's future and housing, health and employment as India still is poverty stricken despite its economic growth. Pakistan too does not afford military hype and it needs to concentrate on freeing judiciary, attaining true democracy where parliament is strong and people's inclusion. As it stands Indian war slogans and civilian leadership's inefficiency to jointly work on so called "˜charter of democracy' have contributed to open the old log book where longer military regime shorten the civilian rule and make civilian rules accountable for their mal administration & corruption with the aid of a nexus between military generals and judges.

Amjad Malik is a Solicitor-Advocate of the Supreme Court of England & Wales

10 December 2008